CAJ | 학술논문

本文考虑在对外开放与城市化快速发展背景下，结合规模效应、技术效应和结构效应等三个途径研究中国碳排放强度影响因素，选择第二产业比重、人均GDP、能源强度、对外贸易依存度和城镇化率等影响因素，根据协整理论分析认为1980—2011年我国碳强度与影响因素变量之间存在长期均衡关系，通过构建状念空间模型并运用卡尔曼滤波对其估计分析，结果验证了前面的结论，并分别得到各因素对我国碳排放强度的动态影响。最后根据结论提出政策建议。
본문고필재대외개방여성시화쾌속발전배경하，결합규모효응、기술효응화결구효응등삼개도경연구중국탄배방강도영향인소，선택제이산업비중、인균GDP、능원강도、대외무역의존도화성진화솔등영향인소，근거협정이론분석인위1980—2011년아국탄강도여영향인소변량지간존재장기균형관계，통과구건상념공간모형병운용잡이만려파대기고계분석，결과험증료전면적결론，병분별득도각인소대아국탄배방강도적동태영향。최후근거결론제출정책건의。
This paper considers the background of external liberalization and the rapid deveh）pment of urbanization, and comhine with of the scale eft~ct, technical effect and structural effect of three theoretical researches of Intluence factors of carbon emission intensity China, select the proportion of the second industry, per capita GDP, energy intensity, the degree of dependence on foreign trade and urbanization rate of five factors, aceurding to the analysis of the cuinlegratiun theory there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China ＇s carbon intensity of 1980 -2011 years and five variahles. By cunstructing the state space model and analysis using Cahnan filter to estimate, resuhs prove the above conclusion, and obtained the dynamic influence of various factnrs on the strength of carhon emissions in China. Finally, according to the relevant conclusions, it puts fnrward policy recommendations.