CAJ | 학술논문

本文提出将“气候容量”概念作为适应气候变化的核心测度,并论述了与此相关的气候资源承载力、生态承载力、水资源承载力、土地承载力、人口承载力等概念.气候容量是针对全球气候和环境变化背景下提出的概念,从根本上讲,中国适应气候变化是气候容量问题,即一个地区特定气候资源所能够承载的自然生态系统和人类社会经济活动的数量、强度和规模.气候容量包括天然容量和衍生容量,天然容量包括温度、光照、降水、极端气候事件等因子,衍生容量包括水资源、土地资源、生态资源、气候灾害风险等要素.气候容量可以借助工程、技术、制度等适应措施进行改善和转移,但是必须遵循经济理性、生态完整性、风险防护、公平分配等原则.对气候容量及其阈值的评估能够与气候变化风险评估相结合,测算出不同气候变化情景下的最优人口容量和社会经济发展规模,为社会经济发展战略和适应规划提供决策支持.在气候容量充裕的地区,适应气候变化是与人口和经济发展相伴生的问题;而在气候容量严重受限地区,不合理的发展可能进一步恶化气候环境.作者以气候容量充裕的长三角地区和气候容量严重短缺的西部地区为例,分析了气候容量的政策含义,并针对容量限制型的适应问题与发展驱动型的适应问题提出了具体建议.气候容量不仅可以作为气候变化经济学的概念分析工具,而且可以结合气候变化影响和风险评估,为制定地区适应与发展规划提供研究支持.
본문제출장“기후용량”개념작위괄응기후변화적핵심측도,병논술료여차상관적기후자원승재력、생태승재력、수자원승재력、토지승재력、인구승재력등개념.기후용량시침대전구기후화배경변화배경하제출적개념,종근본상강,중국괄응기후변화시기후용량문제,즉일개지구특정기후자원소능구승재적자연생태계통화인류사회경제활동적수량、강도화규모.기후용량포괄천연용량화연생용량,천연용량포괄온도、광조、강수、겁단기후사건등인자,연생용량포괄수자원、토지자원、생태자원、기후재해풍험등요소.기후용량가이차조공정、기술、제도등괄응조시진행개선화전이,단시필수준순경제이성、생태완정성、풍험방호、공평분배등원칙.대기후용량급기역치적평고능구여기후변화풍험평고상결합,측산출불동기후변화정경하적최우인구용량화사회경제발전규모,위사회경제발전전략화괄응규화제공결책지지.재기후용량충유적지구,괄응기후변화시여인구화경제발전상반생적문제;이재기후용량엄중수한지구,불합리적발전가능진일보악화기후배경.작자이기후용량충유적장삼각지구화기후용량엄중단결적서부지구위례,분석료기후용량적정책함의,병침대용량한제형적괄응문제여발전구동형적괄응문제제출료구체건의.기후용량불부가이작위기후변화경제학적개념분석공구,이차가이결합기후변화영향화풍험평고,위제정지구괄응여발전규화제공연구지지.
This paper proposes a concept of ＂Climate Capacity＂ in dealing with climate disasters and risks, focusing on related carrying capacities, such as climatic resources carrying capacity, water resources carrying capacity, ecological carrying capacity, land carrying capacity and environmental capacity. From a perspective of global climate and environmental change, this paper argued that adaptation to climate change in China should consider as constraints of climate capacity. Climate capacity is the total potential productivity of ecological system and volume of socio-economic activities which can be carried by the specific climatic resources in a region during a period. Climate capacity is comprised of two components; one is the natural determinants including temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and extreme climatic events, etc. The other is the derived capacity, including determinants of water, land, ecosystem, and climatic disaster risks. Taken consideration of principles of cost-benefits, ecological integrity, social justice and climate proofing into adaptive policies and measures, climate capacity can be enlarged or shrinked, as well transferred between regions and periods, by engineering, technical, and institutional interventions. This concept can be used in climate change risk assessment so as to evaluate the thresholds of climate capacity for population planning and socio-economic development. Taking examples from east and west regions with different climate capacities in China, the authors declared that irrational development in those regions with very limited climate capacity would deteriorate ecological environment; on the contrary, in those regions with rich climate capacity, climate risks are driven by increasing exposure of population and assets, which can be defined as development-driven adaptation and climate capacity limited adaptation. A conclusion is drawn that climate capacity can not only be a methodology for climate change economics research, but must be taken as a key indicator for climate adaptation planning.