中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
2期
9~17
,共null页
应对气候变化 最优经济增长 CO2减排控制率 偏最小二乘回归
應對氣候變化 最優經濟增長 CO2減排控製率 偏最小二乘迴歸
응대기후변화 최우경제증장 CO2감배공제솔 편최소이승회귀
combating climate change; optimal economic growth; CO2 emission control rate; partial least-squares regression
如何在确保经济平稳发展的前提下减少CO2排放量,从而达到社会经济发展与生态环境保护双赢的一种经济发展形态,成为世界各国共同研究和探讨的焦点.与此同时,在发达国家应对气候变化行动如火如荼之际,作为世界上最大的发展中国家,我国提出到2020年CO2排放强度比2005年降低40％-45％.论文根据这一约束指标,创新性地把CO2减排控制率引入传统的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,构建应对气候变化的最优经济增长模型,利用偏最小二乘回归方法分别计算基准情景和低碳经济发展情景下2020年的最优经济增长率,得到以下结论：基准情景下最优经济增长率为8.30％;在低碳经济发展情景中,2020年CO2排放强度降低40％和45％减排控制下最优经济增长率分别为7.67％和7.52％.在此基础上,参考两种不同的经济发展情景假设,对2020年经济产出、能源消费需求量和CO2排放量进行预测,最后提出推动能源、经济与环境协调可持续发展的低碳政策建议.
如何在確保經濟平穩髮展的前提下減少CO2排放量,從而達到社會經濟髮展與生態環境保護雙贏的一種經濟髮展形態,成為世界各國共同研究和探討的焦點.與此同時,在髮達國傢應對氣候變化行動如火如荼之際,作為世界上最大的髮展中國傢,我國提齣到2020年CO2排放彊度比2005年降低40％-45％.論文根據這一約束指標,創新性地把CO2減排控製率引入傳統的Cobb-Douglas生產函數,構建應對氣候變化的最優經濟增長模型,利用偏最小二乘迴歸方法分彆計算基準情景和低碳經濟髮展情景下2020年的最優經濟增長率,得到以下結論：基準情景下最優經濟增長率為8.30％;在低碳經濟髮展情景中,2020年CO2排放彊度降低40％和45％減排控製下最優經濟增長率分彆為7.67％和7.52％.在此基礎上,參攷兩種不同的經濟髮展情景假設,對2020年經濟產齣、能源消費需求量和CO2排放量進行預測,最後提齣推動能源、經濟與環境協調可持續髮展的低碳政策建議.
여하재학보경제평은발전적전제하감소CO2배방량,종이체도사회경제발전여생태배경보호쌍영적일충경제발전형태,성위세계각국공동연구화탐토적초점.여차동시,재발체국가응대기후변화행동여화여도지제,작위세계상최대적발전중국가,아국제출도2020년CO2배방강도비2005년강저40％-45％.논문근거저일약속지표,창신성지파CO2감배공제솔인입전통적Cobb-Douglas생산함수,구건응대기후변화적최우경제증장모형,이용편최소이승회귀방법분별계산기준정경화저탄경제발전정경하2020년적최우경제증장솔,득도이하결론：기준정경하최우경제증장솔위8.30％;재저탄경제발전정경중,2020년CO2배방강도강저40％화45％감배공제하최우경제증장솔분별위7.67％화7.52％.재차기출상,삼고량충불동적경제발전정경가설,대2020년경제산출、능원소비수구량화CO2배방량진행예측,최후제출추동능원、경제여배경협조가지속발전적저탄정책건의.
It has become a common focus of research and discussion in all countries around the world about how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions while ensuring steady economic development to achieve a win-win economic development pattern of social economic development and ecological protection. Meanwhile, when the developed country takes more and more action to tackle climate change action, the biggest developing country, China, will commit to reducing carbon dioxide emission intensity by 40% to 45% of 2005 levels by 2020. According to the constraint target, we put the CO2 emission control rate into the traditional Cobb-Douglas production function, built the model of optimal economic growth based on tackling climate change and got the optimal economic growth rate on the baseline scenario and low-carbon economy development scenario by 2020 by use of Partial Least-Squares Regression in this paper. There are two results as follows ： on the baseline scenario, the optimal economic growth rate is 8.30% ; and on the low carbon economy development scenario, the optimal economic growth rate is separately 7.67% and 7.52% under the two different controls of reducing carbon dioxide emission intensity by 40% and 45% in 2020. On this basis, we forecast economic output, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions refer to two different scenarios on economic development. Finally, some policy suggestions promoting the sustainable development of energy, the economy and the environment have been put forward.
