CAJ | 학술논문

针对现有生态安全研究侧重概念模型要素之间的比较及综合评价,缺乏要素间互动关系及生态安全状况演变趋势预测的研究现状,以“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”（DPSIR）框架为基础,构建适用于中国沿海城市的生态安全评价指标体系.研究以原始DPSIR概念模型为基础,提出了7组因果关系假设,采用结构方程模型对假设进行测度,发现“沿海城市生态安全响应对状态起到正向作用”的研究假设被拒绝,论文根据各组假设的因果关系结果构建出中国沿海城市生态安全DPSIR概念模型.同时研究以沿海城市DPSIR概念模型内因果链及要素间的作用系数为基础,构建了生态安全作用机制系统动力学模型,对沿海城市生态安全状态进行预测仿真.沿海城市生态安全的初始状态良好,于仿真模拟第三年（2012年）的时候变为负值,并且该状态变量的数值持续降低.通过调整模型中的主要参数,发现环境污染治理投资额、工业产值占比、第三产业占比、单位GDP能耗指数四个指标在生态安全作用机制中发挥重要作用,对改善生态安全状态起到显著影响.本文选取上海、烟台、温州、海口四类典型沿海城市对生态安全状态进行情景模拟,发现：上海生态安全状态恶化速度最快,于仿真第三年转变为负值;烟台、温州生态安全状态的演化趋势在前5年基本一致,其中烟台的生态安全状态演化曲线逐渐陡峭,反映其生态安全状态逐渐劣于温州;海口的生态安全状况一直优于其他三个城市,其生态安全系统演变曲线最为平缓.
침대현유생태안전연구측중개념모형요소지간적비교급종합평개,결핍요소간호동관계급생태안전상황연변추세예측적연구현상,이“구동력-압력-상태-영향-향응”（DPSIR）광가위기출,구건괄용우중국연해성시적생태안전평개지표체계.연구이원시DPSIR개념모형위기출,제출료7조인과관계가설,채용결구방정모형대가설진행측도,발현“연해성시생태안전향응대상태기도정향작용”적연구가설피거절,논문근거각조가설적인과관계결과구건출중국연해성시생태안전DPSIR개념모형.동시연구이연해성시DPSIR개념모형내인과련급요소간적작용계수위기출,구건료생태안전작용궤제계통동역학모형,대연해성시생태안전상태진행예측방진.연해성시생태안전적초시상태량호,우방진모의제삼년（2012년）적시후변위부치,병차해상태변량적수치지속강저.통과조정모형중적주요삼수,발현배경오염치리투자액、공업산치점비、제삼산업점비、단위GDP능모지수사개지표재생태안전작용궤제중발휘중요작용,대개선생태안전상태기도현저영향.본문선취상해、연태、온주、해구사류전형연해성시대생태안전상태진행정경모의,발현：상해생태안전상태악화속도최쾌,우방진제삼년전변위부치;연태、온주생태안전상태적연화추세재전5년기본일치,기중연태적생태안전상태연화곡선축점두초,반영기생태안전상태축점렬우온주;해구적생태안전상황일직우우기타삼개성시,기생태안전계통연변곡선최위평완.
The exiting research on ecological security applying the concept models mainly focuses on establishing the assessment index system, which have ignored the quantitative study of the causal relationship among the elements in the concept models, and lacked the evolution trend analysis of ecological security system. This study, based on the conceptual mode of ＇＂ Driver, Pressure, State, Impacts, Response＂（DPSIR）, develops an ecological security index system for Chinese coastal cities. In accordance with the original DPSIR concept model, it puts forward 7 groups of causality hypothesis, uses the structural equation model （ SEM ） to analyze the causal relationships and effect coefficients, and reveals the action mechanism of ecological security in coastal cities. This paper reveals that： the hypothesis, which is ＂the response （R） has played a positive role to the state （S）＂ is rejected （TH7 = 0. 777）, and further constructs the coastal urban DPSIR model according to the other 6 groups of causal relationships. Based on the causal relationships and effect coefficient of coastal urban DPSIR concept model, it builds the dynamic mechanism model of ecological security, analyzes and predicts the evolution process of coastal urban ecological security state. Coastal urban ecological security is rendered as a good initial state（ S （2010） = 0. 765 ）. In the third simulated year （2012）, its value becomes negative （S （2012） = -0. 423 ） ; the value of the state element continues to reduce. Though adjusting the parameters values, this paper puts forward four indexes which play an important role in coastal ecological security action mechanism： environment pollution governance investment, the industry output, the third industry output, and energy consumption per unit of GDP. And then those coastal cities are divided into four types. According to the four types, the scenario simulation is used to analyze the different ecological security evolution trends. The ecological security state of Shanghai has shown the fastest deterioration, and become negative in the third simulated year. The ecological security states of Yantai and Wenzhou have shown the same evolutionary trends in the five simulated years firstly. The evolution curve of ecological security state of Yantai has become steeper, reflecting the ecological security state of Yantai has been worse than the state of Wenzhou. The ecological security state of Haikou has been better than the other three cities, and the evolution curve of its ecological security state has been the most gentle.