CAJ | 학술논문

为克服最终需求间接能耗初始核算模型存在的两点主要不足,笔者对其进行一次变形与二次转换,实现对最终需求间接能耗核算模型的改进,满足对最终需求间接能耗连续性估算的要求.结果表明在行业分类一致的前提下,最终需求间接能耗初始与改进核算模型的结果较为接近,平均相对误差低于5％,表明在无投入产出表年份,可以借助改进核算模型进行估算;核算模型要求行业分类尽可能精细,分类越宽泛,结果越粗糙,高估可能越大;再者由于最终需求项目数据可得性的难易程度不同,其间接能耗估算结果的精确性存在差异;最后改进核算模型的应用性可针对与行业密切相关的间接能耗污染排放与其他资源消耗以及其污染排放等进行拓展.
위극복최종수구간접능모초시핵산모형존재적량점주요불족,필자대기진행일차변형여이차전환,실현대최종수구간접능모핵산모형적개진,만족대최종수구간접능모련속성고산적요구.결과표명재행업분류일치적전제하,최종수구간접능모초시여개진핵산모형적결과교위접근,평균상대오차저우5％,표명재무투입산출표년빈,가이차조개진핵산모형진행고산;핵산모형요구행업분류진가능정세,분류월관범,결과월조조,고고가능월대;재자유우최종수구항목수거가득성적난역정도불동,기간접능모고산결과적정학성존재차이;최후개진핵산모형적응용성가침대여행업밀절상관적간접능모오염배방여기타자원소모이급기오염배방등진행탁전.
To overcome the two main weaknesses of the primary accounting models of final demands on indirect-energy consumption, this paper derives the improved accounting models deformed firstly and transformed secondly based on the input-output method in order to meet the needs of the continual estimating of final demands on indirect-energy consumption. The results show that the results of the improved accounting models are close to the primary ones when the classifications of industries are same, the average relative errors are less than 5%, thus we can make use of the improved accounting models to estimate final demands on indirect-energy consumption when there aren＇t input-output tables; the improved models need more industries, the classifications are fewer, the resuhs are rougher, and the out-estimating possibility is higher; the accuracy of the results of different final demands of indirect energy consumption are different because of different data derivations; the scope of applying can be broaden to which are close to industries, such as pollution emissions ,water consumption and sewage discharge, and so on.