CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究发现,中国居民消费不足与人口年龄结构和性别结构的变化密切相关.基于生命周期储蓄率模型逆推出居民消费率模型,利用中国1991-2011年省际面板数据对人口年龄结构、性别结构与居民消费之间的关系进行了估计,主要结论如下：少儿抚养比、老年抚养比与居民消费率正相关,人口性别比系数为正,但稳健性较差,养老保险覆盖率的上升并未显著提升居民消费率.因此,政府应继续完善养老保障制度,并在制定长期宏观经济政策时应将未来人口年龄结构变化对居民消费的影响考虑进来.
본문연구발현,중국거민소비불족여인구년령결구화성별결구적변화밀절상관.기우생명주기저축솔모형역추출거민소비솔모형,이용중국1991-2011년성제면판수거대인구년령결구、성별결구여거민소비지간적관계진행료고계,주요결론여하：소인무양비、노년무양비여거민소비솔정상관,인구성별비계수위정,단은건성교차,양로보험복개솔적상승병미현저제승거민소비솔.인차,정부응계속완선양로보장제도,병재제정장기굉관경제정책시응장미래인구년령결구변화대거민소비적영향고필진래.
There is an close relation between age, sexual structure and household consumption. The inadequate consumption arises from the changes in age and sexual structure, this paper finds out that the inadequate consumption in China is closely related with the change in demographic structure. Based on the life-cycle saving model, this paper derives a household consumption model which could reflect the impacts of the changing demographic structure on household consuming by adding young dependency ratio, old dependency ratio and sexual ratio. Using data from China at the provincial level for the period 1991 -2008, we estimate the model and the results as follows： young dependency ratio has a positive effect on household consumption rate whereas old dependency ratio has a negative effect, and the coefficient of sexual ratio is not robust. The inadequate consumption in China may be arises from the declining in young dependency ratio and the growth of old dependency ratio. Therefore, the government should take the effects of demographic change into consideration when formulating consumption policy.