CAJ | 학술논문

研究中国省际贸易的影响因素对于促进区域协调发展、形成全国统一市场有着重要意义。本文采用1998—2011年中国29个省份间的双边贸易面板数据．建立空间面板互动模型，从多维距离的视角，分析了影响中国省际贸易的“推力”、“拉力”和“阻力”。针对数据的时空分析表明，中国省际贸易在流出和流入方面存在着不对称性、不均衡性、邻近性和空间关联性。模型分析表明：源地和汇地的工业增加值比例对省际贸易有着正向影响；汇地的地方保护行为严重妨碍外地货物流入该地；在所有距离因素中。地理距离阻碍省际贸易，且影响最强；省份间的经济距离在一定范围内有利于省际贸易。产业距离对省际贸易有利，技术距离则无显著影响。本文认为，除了传统的加强交通基础设施建设和破除地方保护等措施外，为了促进省际贸易，还需提高产出增加值．突出省份间的产业特色，并理性看待省份间的经济发展差距。
연구중국성제무역적영향인소대우촉진구역협조발전、형성전국통일시장유착중요의의。본문채용1998—2011년중국29개성빈간적쌍변무역면판수거．건립공간면판호동모형，종다유거리적시각，분석료영향중국성제무역적“추력”、“랍력”화“조력”。침대수거적시공분석표명，중국성제무역재류출화류입방면존재착불대칭성、불균형성、린근성화공간관련성。모형분석표명：원지화회지적공업증가치비례대성제무역유착정향영향；회지적지방보호행위엄중방애외지화물류입해지；재소유거리인소중。지리거리조애성제무역，차영향최강；성빈간적경제거리재일정범위내유리우성제무역。산업거리대성제무역유리，기술거리칙무현저영향。본문인위，제료전통적가강교통기출설시건설화파제지방보호등조시외，위료촉진성제무역，환수제고산출증가치．돌출성빈간적산업특색，병이성간대성빈간적경제발전차거。
Using data on origin-destination type bilateral trade flow of Chinese 29 provinces from year 1998 to 2011, and employing spatial panel interaction model, this paper examines the effects of propulsive, attractive and frictional forces between two provinces on inter-provincial trade flows, focusing on multi-dimensional distances and local protectionism. The spatio-temporal analysis on origin-destination panel data indicates that there exist asymmetry, disproportionality, contiguity and spatial association in Chinese interprovincial trade. The model estimated results reveals that, after accounting for effects coming from scale, structure and economic extroversion of provinces, local protectionism and geographical distance impedes inter-provincial trade severely; When in appropriate range, inter-provincial economic development gap can facilitate inter-provincial trade, but hinder when beyond a certain range; Industrial structural difference between provinces is in favor of inter-provincial trade, but their technological gap has no significance. The paper includes that, to promote inter-provincial trade, we need to go beyond eliminating local protectionism and improving transportation infrastructure, and develop measures taking into account provincial realities, such as economic development and industrial structure.