CAJ | 학술논문

应对气候变化，完成《京都议定书》第二承诺期中国的CO2减排责任，是中国经济发展战略转型、发展方式转变和发展路径转轨的外部约束条件。本文在测度中国各省份1990-2011年CO2排放规模基础上，比较了各省份历年CO2排放规模、排放增长速度、排放强度等指标，发现CO2排放规模和强度存在着省际转移现象，并表现出不同的区域与阶段特征。本文还测算了各省份2020年前的CO2减排规模和强度值，并以此为外部约束指标。提出了中国不同省份的节能减排任务。要完成《京都议定书》第二承诺期中国的CO2减排任务。从区域层面要控制省份的CO2排放规模和排放强度；从国家层面要优化产业结构和能源消费结构，加快全国和区域性碳排放权交易市场体系建设，以政府的有形之手和市场无形之手推动碳减排：从全社会层面要构建新型城市化模式和公共交通体系，减少城市化和交通运输所产生的碳排放。
응대기후변화，완성《경도의정서》제이승낙기중국적CO2감배책임，시중국경제발전전략전형、발전방식전변화발전로경전궤적외부약속조건。본문재측도중국각성빈1990-2011년CO2배방규모기출상，비교료각성빈력년CO2배방규모、배방증장속도、배방강도등지표，발현CO2배방규모화강도존재착성제전이현상，병표현출불동적구역여계단특정。본문환측산료각성빈2020년전적CO2감배규모화강도치，병이차위외부약속지표。제출료중국불동성빈적절능감배임무。요완성《경도의정서》제이승낙기중국적CO2감배임무。종구역층면요공제성빈적CO2배방규모화배방강도；종국가층면요우화산업결구화능원소비결구，가쾌전국화구역성탄배방권교역시장체계건설，이정부적유형지수화시장무형지수추동탄감배：종전사회층면요구건신형성시화모식화공공교통체계，감소성시화화교통운수소산생적탄배방。
Actively responding to climate change, completing China＇s CO2 emission reduction responsibility to the second period of the ＂Kyoto Protocol＂ commitment is not only the proper meaning of China＇s economic development, but also the external constraints to the transformation of China＇s economic development strategy, economic development pattern and development path of transition. Using CO2 emissions data from the years of 1990 to 2011 in various provinces, this paper estimates and compares some indicators of CO2 emissions, including emissions scale, growth rate and emissions intensity, shows the existence of provincial transfers in CO2 emissions scale and emissions intensity. In order to achieve the control objectives, the paper measures the scale and intensity of CO2 emissions of the provinces in 2020 as the external constraints. China＇s provinces should develop reasonable economic and social development goals, optimize energy consumption structure, speed up the establishment of the national and regional carbon emissians trading market system, and build a new pattern of urbanization and the public transport system.