CAJ | 학술논문

厂商存货调整会对一国经济波动，特别是短期经济波动产生重要的影响。以制造业上市公司为样本研究对象，通过H-P滤波将存货等变量进一步分解成趋势项和周期项，研究存货等变量周期项的波动性、相关性和周期性等特征，发现以绝对量衡量的存货投资与营业收入在当期存在较显著的正相关，而以相对值衡量的存货占比与营业收入环比增速则在短期存在明显的负相关。对存货等变量周期项进行分析表明，存货投资、营业收入和存货占比都存在一个长度约9个季度的主周期。最后对2008年以来各季度厂商存货调整和营业收入变动的关系进行了分析。
엄상존화조정회대일국경제파동，특별시단기경제파동산생중요적영향。이제조업상시공사위양본연구대상，통과H-P려파장존화등변량진일보분해성추세항화주기항，연구존화등변량주기항적파동성、상관성화주기성등특정，발현이절대량형량적존화투자여영업수입재당기존재교현저적정상관，이이상대치형량적존화점비여영업수입배비증속칙재단기존재명현적부상관。대존화등변량주기항진행분석표명，존화투자、영업수입화존화점비도존재일개장도약9개계도적주주기。최후대2008년이래각계도엄상존화조정화영업수입변동적관계진행료분석。
Firm inventory adjustment behavior will cause fluctuations in the economy of a country, especially in the short -term economic fluctuations. This paper takes listed manufacturing companies as samples and breaks in- ventory and other variables down into trend items and periodic items by H - P filter. Thereafter, volatility, correla- tion and periodicity of those periodic items are carefully studied, and some conclusions come to us： there is a sig- nificant positive correlation between inventory investment and operation revenue, but a significant negative correla- tion in the short term between inventory ratio and operation revenue growth rate on a quarter - on - quarter basis. As a necessary complement, spectral analysis is also carried out; the results show that periodic items of inventory investment, operation revenue and inventory ratio all have a primary cycle with a length of about nine quarters. Fi- nally, the relationship of variable changes in each quarter since 2008 are described and analyzed.