系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2014年
3期
613~622
,共null页
动量效应 行为金融 前景理论 锚定偏误 处置效应 相对股价动量
動量效應 行為金融 前景理論 錨定偏誤 處置效應 相對股價動量
동량효응 행위금융 전경이론 묘정편오 처치효응 상대고개동량
momentum effect; behavioral finance; perspective theory; anchoring bias; disposition effect;relative price momentum
动量效应为何长期广泛存在,是传统金融理论和行为金融理论争论的焦点.本文针对中国股市的特性,基于行为金融理论下的锚定偏误与处置效应构建了两种“相对股价动量”组合,并研究了这些“股价动量”与传统动量的关系.结果表明:控制传统动量效应和系统性风险之后,股价动量组合的收益仍然显著为正;在控制了股价动量效应后,传统的动量效应不再明显;在考虑交易成本之后,动量收益不显著.这说明,“锚定偏误”和“处置效应”是导致我国股市动量效应的重要原因,交易成本则阻碍了套利行为的进行.
動量效應為何長期廣汎存在,是傳統金融理論和行為金融理論爭論的焦點.本文針對中國股市的特性,基于行為金融理論下的錨定偏誤與處置效應構建瞭兩種“相對股價動量”組閤,併研究瞭這些“股價動量”與傳統動量的關繫.結果錶明:控製傳統動量效應和繫統性風險之後,股價動量組閤的收益仍然顯著為正;在控製瞭股價動量效應後,傳統的動量效應不再明顯;在攷慮交易成本之後,動量收益不顯著.這說明,“錨定偏誤”和“處置效應”是導緻我國股市動量效應的重要原因,交易成本則阻礙瞭套利行為的進行.
동량효응위하장기엄범존재,시전통금융이론화행위금융이론쟁론적초점.본문침대중국고시적특성,기우행위금융이론하적묘정편오여처치효응구건료량충“상대고개동량”조합,병연구료저사“고개동량”여전통동량적관계.결과표명:공제전통동량효응화계통성풍험지후,고개동량조합적수익잉연현저위정;재공제료고개동량효응후,전통적동량효응불재명현;재고필교역성본지후,동량수익불현저.저설명,“묘정편오”화“처치효응”시도치아국고시동량효응적중요원인,교역성본칙조애료투리행위적진행.
It is one debating point between traditional and behavioral financial theories why momentum effect persists in most financial markets. In view of Chinese stock markets' features, this paper constructs "relative price" momentum portfolios based on "anchoring bias" and "disposition effect" in behavioral financial theories, and explores the relationship among these new momentums and classical momentums. The results show after controlling the classical momentum effect and systematic risk factors, the relative price momentum effect still exists. However, after controlling the relative price momentum effect, the classical momentum effect disappears. If considering transaction costs, investors could not benefit from the momentum strategies. These findings indicate that "anchoring bias" and "disposition effect" are important reasons of momentum effect in Chinese stock markets' features, and high transaction costs hinder the arbitrary.