东北大学学报:社会科学版
東北大學學報:社會科學版
동북대학학보:사회과학판
Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)
2014年
2期
135~140
,共null页
信念度 贝叶斯定理 主观概率 荷兰赌论证 条件化定理
信唸度 貝葉斯定理 主觀概率 荷蘭賭論證 條件化定理
신념도 패협사정리 주관개솔 하란도론증 조건화정리
degree of belief; Bayesian theory; subjective probability; Dutch Book Argument;conditionalization
自葛梯尔问题提出以来,当代知识论的论证基本集中在确证这一要素之上,但就确证而言,无论是其结构还是其功能都饱受争议,至今仍未有定论。贝叶斯知识论跳出了有关确证的争论,是一种追寻既具简洁直观、精炼准确,又有着数学的美感、严谨的理论。主观概率是理解贝叶斯知识论的确证模型的切人点,也是该理论的预设前提。荷兰赌论证和条件化定理是贝叶斯知识论的两大基石。然而贝叶斯知识论自身也有其缺陷,不可避免地遭受来自各方的抨击。
自葛梯爾問題提齣以來,噹代知識論的論證基本集中在確證這一要素之上,但就確證而言,無論是其結構還是其功能都飽受爭議,至今仍未有定論。貝葉斯知識論跳齣瞭有關確證的爭論,是一種追尋既具簡潔直觀、精煉準確,又有著數學的美感、嚴謹的理論。主觀概率是理解貝葉斯知識論的確證模型的切人點,也是該理論的預設前提。荷蘭賭論證和條件化定理是貝葉斯知識論的兩大基石。然而貝葉斯知識論自身也有其缺陷,不可避免地遭受來自各方的抨擊。
자갈제이문제제출이래,당대지식론적론증기본집중재학증저일요소지상,단취학증이언,무론시기결구환시기공능도포수쟁의,지금잉미유정론。패협사지식론도출료유관학증적쟁론,시일충추심기구간길직관、정련준학,우유착수학적미감、엄근적이론。주관개솔시리해패협사지식론적학증모형적절인점,야시해이론적예설전제。하란도론증화조건화정리시패협사지식론적량대기석。연이패협사지식론자신야유기결함,불가피면지조수래자각방적평격。
Since the emergence of Gettier problems, modern epistemologists have focused on the element of justification, which is controversial and inconclusive in terms of its structure and function. Departing from the debates on justification, Bayesian epistemology makes an attempt to formulate a theory that is concise, straight, precise and elegant. Subjective probability is a presupposition and an appropriate entry point of understanding Bayesian epistemology. Dutch Book Argument and conditionalization serve as the two cornerstones of Bayesian epistemology. However, Bayesian epistemology has its own shortcomings, which inevitablv undergoes a lot of criticism