CAJ | 학술논문

近年来,碳排放逐渐从环境问题演变成政治经济问题,碳关税是发达国家推崇的新型贸易壁垒,以此来增强本国产业竞争力,这对于碳排放量较大的发展中国家无疑会产生较大的不利影响.为了提前做好准备应对发达国家碳关税,以我国出口结构中高碳产品最密集的制造业为对象,研究碳关税措施和出口贸易行业结构之间的关系,在气候变化问题和国际贸易两大体系之间建立关联.本文首先构建碳关税的局部均衡模型,从几何分析和数理分析两个维度出发,探讨美国征收碳关税对我国制造业出口贸易和社会福利产生的影响.在此基础上利用GTAP模型,模拟美国、欧盟等发达国家在四种情境下征收碳关税的情况,分析实施碳关税对我国制造业各行业出口结构的影响,以及对我国社会福利的影响.研究结果表明：美国征收碳关税会导致我国制造业产品出口市场价格下降,出口量减小;我国开征国内碳税会导致制造业产品出口市场价格上升,出口量减小,但出口减小幅度低于美国对我国制造业征收碳关税时的出口减小幅度;美、欧等发达国家征收碳关税将导致我国化工橡胶制品行业、石油煤炭加工工业以及造纸业等能源密集型行业的出口减少,其中受到冲击最严重的行业为造纸业,出口降幅在1.79％-6.05％之间,而其他非能源密集型的制造行业出口增加;我国制造业出口结构在一定程度上得到优化;我国整体福利水平下降,下降水平在21.34亿-83.47亿美元之间.最后,从国际协调、出口结构调整、绿色制造发展等方面提出对策建议,为我国制造业的发展提供借鉴.
근년래,탄배방축점종배경문제연변성정치경제문제,탄관세시발체국가추숭적신형무역벽루,이차래증강본국산업경쟁력,저대우탄배방량교대적발전중국가무의회산생교대적불리영향.위료제전주호준비응대발체국가탄관세,이아국출구결구중고탄산품최밀집적제조업위대상,연구탄관세조시화출구무역행업결구지간적관계,재기후변화문제화국제무역량대체계지간건립관련.본문수선구건탄관세적국부균형모형,종궤하분석화수리분석량개유도출발,탐토미국정수탄관세대아국제조업출구무역화사회복리산생적영향.재차기출상이용GTAP모형,모의미국、구맹등발체국가재사충정경하정수탄관세적정황,분석실시탄관세대아국제조업각행업출구결구적영향,이급대아국사회복리적영향.연구결과표명：미국정수탄관세회도치아국제조업산품출구시장개격하강,출구량감소;아국개정국내탄세회도치제조업산품출구시장개격상승,출구량감소,단출구감소폭도저우미국대아국제조업정수탄관세시적출구감소폭도;미、구등발체국가정수탄관세장도치아국화공상효제품행업、석유매탄가공공업이급조지업등능원밀집형행업적출구감소,기중수도충격최엄중적행업위조지업,출구강폭재1.79％-6.05％지간,이기타비능원밀집형적제조행업출구증가;아국제조업출구결구재일정정도상득도우화;아국정체복이수평하강,하강수평재21.34억-83.47억미원지간.최후,종국제협조、출구결구조정、록색제조발전등방면제출대책건의,위아국제조업적발전제공차감.
In recent years,carbon emissions from environmental issues gradually evolved into political and economic issues.Carbon tariffs is promoting the new trade barriers of developed countries; in order to enhance its industrial competitiveness,it will produce unfavorable impact on the developing country.Concentrated on manufacturing industries which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China＇ s export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industrial structure of export trade and builds up relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China＇s manufacture export trade consequences of the introduction of U.S.carbon tariff on China＇ s manufacture industry that already imposes a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China＇s manufacture industry if U.S.and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of 4 ways,and then analyzes the influence on our country manufacturing industry export structure and our social welfare.The result shows that the introduction of U.S.carbon import tariff lowers China＇ s export price and export volume; the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China,however,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of U.S.carbon tariff; in the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China＇ s energy-intensive industries,such as the chemical industry rubber products,oil and coal processing industry and paper industry,whose export would reduce; the negative impact on paper industry is the most severe,which will cause a decrease in paper industry＇ s export from 1.79％ to 6.05％,whereas the other industries＇ export will increase ; it will promote China＇s manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure in a certain extent; as well,it will lead to a decrease in China＇ s welfare,whose reduction is between US ＄ 2.134 billion and US ＄ 8.347 billion.Finally,this paper proposes advices on international coordination,export structure adjustments,green manufacturing adjustments as reference for the development of China＇s manufacturing industry.