CAJ | 학술논문

中国经济高速增长的一个重要原因就是对外贸易的不断拉动,但在贸易规模不断扩大的同时,碳排放总量也在迅速增长.本文根据中国1996-2010年的分行业面板数据,测算了27个制造业的碳排放量,并根据碳排放强度将制造业分为低碳制造业和高碳制造业,对其碳排放趋势进行了分行业研究,在此基础上,利用FGLS回归方法验证制造业碳排放EKC的存在性并在模型中加入一些控制变量对结果进行检验,然后在回归方程中加入贸易和工业增加值的交互项考察碳泄漏问题.所得结论如下：整个制造业和低碳制造业无论是人均碳排放还是总的碳排放均符合EKC曲线,而高碳制造业却存在着线性关系;贸易减少了整个制造业和低碳制造业的碳排放,但却增加了高碳制造业的碳排放,总体来说贸易量的增加对于制造业人均碳排放量和总碳排量的影响是有利的;在碳泄漏问题上,制造业和低碳制造业不存在碳泄漏的问题,而高碳制造业则相反,但整体上“污染避难所”假说这一结论在我国不成立,对外贸易对中国制造业碳排放的总体影响是有利的,中国不需要因为减少CO2排放而去限制制造业的对外贸易.但是制造业未来仍将是中国经济增长的主要动力.因此,我国应制定有效的低碳政策,引进先进技术,并加大对低碳技术的研发投入,对原有的旧设备进行升级和改造,改变落后的生产方式.针对制造业中高碳制造业的高排放强度,我国应努力做大产业规模,提高能源的利用率和研发资金投入,加快技术进步,达到减排的效果.
중국경제고속증장적일개중요원인취시대외무역적불단랍동,단재무역규모불단확대적동시,탄배방총량야재신속증장.본문근거중국1996-2010년적분행업면판수거,측산료27개제조업적탄배방량,병근거탄배방강도장제조업분위저탄제조업화고탄제조업,대기탄배방추세진행료분행업연구,재차기출상,이용FGLS회귀방법험증제조업탄배방EKC적존재성병재모형중가입일사공제변량대결과진행검험,연후재회귀방정중가입무역화공업증가치적교호항고찰탄설루문제.소득결론여하：정개제조업화저탄제조업무론시인균탄배방환시총적탄배방균부합EKC곡선,이고탄제조업각존재착선성관계;무역감소료정개제조업화저탄제조업적탄배방,단각증가료고탄제조업적탄배방,총체래설무역량적증가대우제조업인균탄배방량화총탄배량적영향시유리적;재탄설루문제상,제조업화저탄제조업불존재탄설루적문제,이고탄제조업칙상반,단정체상“오염피난소”가설저일결론재아국불성립,대외무역대중국제조업탄배방적총체영향시유리적,중국불수요인위감소CO2배방이거한제제조업적대외무역.단시제조업미래잉장시중국경제증장적주요동력.인차,아국응제정유효적저탄정책,인진선진기술,병가대대저탄기술적연발투입,대원유적구설비진행승급화개조,개변락후적생산방식.침대제조업중고탄제조업적고배방강도,아국응노력주대산업규모,제고능원적이용솔화연발자금투입,가쾌기술진보,체도감배적효과.
Foreign trade drives China＇s growth,but as the trade scale continues to expand,the carbon emissions also increase quickly.Based on the industry panel data from the year of 1996 to 2010,this paper calculates the carbon emissions of the 27 manufacturing industries.According to the intensity of carbon emissions,this paper divides the manufacturing sectors into low-carbon and high-carbon manufacturing industry and then analyses the carbon emissions trends.Next the paper uses the FGLS regression to verify the existence of EKC of the manufacturing industry＇ s carbon,and investigates the carbon leakage problem by adding the multiplicative term of trade with the value added to the regression.Our findings are as follows：the carbon emissions of the whole manufacturing industry and lowcarbon manufacturing industry accord with the EKC curve,but a linear relationship to the high-carbon industry; trade reduces the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry and low-carbon manufacturing industry,but it increased the carbon emissions of the high-carbon manufacturing industry; for the manufacturing industry and low-carbon manufacturing industry,there is no carbon leakage,but the high manufacturing carbon industry exists.On the whole,Pollution Haven Hypothesis does not hold up in China,and China does not need to limit industry foreign trade to reduce the emission of CO2.But in the future the manufacturing industry will still be the main engine of the economic growth,therefore,China should make effective low-carbon policy,introduce advanced technology,increase R ＆ D investment to low-carbon technologies and upgrade and transform the original equipment to change the backward mode of production.In view of the high-carbon intensity carbon in high-carbon manufacturing industry,China should strive to expand the industrial scale,improve the utilization ratio of energy,enlarge the fund of research and development and accelerate technological progress to achieve the emission reduction.