中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
3期
54~60
,共null页
膳食结构 食物生产用地 贡献率 食物安全
膳食結構 食物生產用地 貢獻率 食物安全
선식결구 식물생산용지 공헌솔 식물안전
dietary pattern; land required for food; contribution rate; food security
伴随着居民收入增加而引起的膳食结构升级对食物生产用地需求的影响越来越大.根据居民食物摄入数据分析了1961-2009年间我国食物生产用地需求的变化情况及膳食结构因素对其变化的贡献率,并预测了不同膳食模式下我国人口高峰年食物生产用地的需求状况,结果如下：我国人均食物生产用地需求以1984年为节点呈现先下降后上升的“v”字型变化趋势,在居民日常摄入的5大类食物中,人均谷类和豆类消费所需农地面积出现下降,而人均动物性食物、蔬菜和纯能量类食物消费所需农地则呈上升态势;我国食物生产用地总需求总体上以1984年为界分为先稳定发展后急速增长两个阶段,前一阶段我国食物生产用地总需求量保持在12.5亿亩/年左右,而后一阶段则从1984年的需求12.75亿亩迅速上升至2009年的22.82亿亩;1984年之后居民膳食摄入变化已成为影响我国食物生产用地需求增长的首要因素,其贡献率达57.7％,而同时期人口增长因素的贡献率仅为42.3％;预测居民在保持当前膳食结构不变与转向平衡膳食模式两种情景下,我国在人口高峰年分别共需食物生产用地25.19亿亩和20.33亿亩,后者比前者节省土地需求4.86亿亩.
伴隨著居民收入增加而引起的膳食結構升級對食物生產用地需求的影響越來越大.根據居民食物攝入數據分析瞭1961-2009年間我國食物生產用地需求的變化情況及膳食結構因素對其變化的貢獻率,併預測瞭不同膳食模式下我國人口高峰年食物生產用地的需求狀況,結果如下：我國人均食物生產用地需求以1984年為節點呈現先下降後上升的“v”字型變化趨勢,在居民日常攝入的5大類食物中,人均穀類和豆類消費所需農地麵積齣現下降,而人均動物性食物、蔬菜和純能量類食物消費所需農地則呈上升態勢;我國食物生產用地總需求總體上以1984年為界分為先穩定髮展後急速增長兩箇階段,前一階段我國食物生產用地總需求量保持在12.5億畝/年左右,而後一階段則從1984年的需求12.75億畝迅速上升至2009年的22.82億畝;1984年之後居民膳食攝入變化已成為影響我國食物生產用地需求增長的首要因素,其貢獻率達57.7％,而同時期人口增長因素的貢獻率僅為42.3％;預測居民在保持噹前膳食結構不變與轉嚮平衡膳食模式兩種情景下,我國在人口高峰年分彆共需食物生產用地25.19億畝和20.33億畝,後者比前者節省土地需求4.86億畝.
반수착거민수입증가이인기적선식결구승급대식물생산용지수구적영향월래월대.근거거민식물섭입수거분석료1961-2009년간아국식물생산용지수구적변화정황급선식결구인소대기변화적공헌솔,병예측료불동선식모식하아국인구고봉년식물생산용지적수구상황,결과여하：아국인균식물생산용지수구이1984년위절점정현선하강후상승적“v”자형변화추세,재거민일상섭입적5대류식물중,인균곡류화두류소비소수농지면적출현하강,이인균동물성식물、소채화순능량류식물소비소수농지칙정상승태세;아국식물생산용지총수구총체상이1984년위계분위선은정발전후급속증장량개계단,전일계단아국식물생산용지총수구량보지재12.5억무/년좌우,이후일계단칙종1984년적수구12.75억무신속상승지2009년적22.82억무;1984년지후거민선식섭입변화이성위영향아국식물생산용지수구증장적수요인소,기공헌솔체57.7％,이동시기인구증장인소적공헌솔부위42.3％;예측거민재보지당전선식결구불변여전향평형선식모식량충정경하,아국재인구고봉년분별공수식물생산용지25.19억무화20.33억무,후자비전자절성토지수구4.86억무.
The change of dietary pattern caused by the increase of residents＇ income is increasingly impacts on land requirements for food in our country.On the basis of the residents＇ food consumption data from 1961 to 2009,this paper analyzed the change law of land requirments for food in the past year and the contribution rate of residents＇ diety pattern to this change,it also forecasted the area of land requirements for food under different dietary patterns in the peak year of population.The main results are as follows：Per capita land requirement for food had showed a v-shape tendency,which had dropped before 1984 and risen after 1984.Among the five category food of cereals,beans,animal products,vegetables and energy food,land requirements for per capita consumption of cereals and beans reflects an descending tendency,while land requirements for per capita consumption of animal products,vegetables and energy food shows an upward trend.The year 1984 divided the study period into two phases,during which the total land requirements for food tends to hold steady before 1984 and then increase rapidly after 1984.In the previous phase,land requirements for food is around 1.25 billion mu,and in the second phases it is sharply increased from 1.275 billion mu in 1984 to 2.282 billion mu in 2009.After the year 1984,the contribution of the change of dietary pattern to land requirements for food was 57.7％,and at the same time the contribution rate of population growth was 42.3％.It is predicted that at the balance diet mode land requirements for food will be 2.033 billion mu in the peak year of population,which is 486 million mu less than the land demand at today＇ s dietary pattern.
