CAJ | 학술논문

建设用地总量控制目标的选择关系到土地利用规划与土地宏观调控的科学性,单一目标导向的建设用地规模预测具有明显的局限性.基于国家土地宏观调控需要,本文统筹考虑经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全3类基本用地需求,构建建设用地总量控制的多情景分析框架,运用多元回归分析、碳平衡分析等方法构建土地基本需求模型,结合国家发展战略与目标设定模型参数,分析预测不同情景下2020年中国建设用地总量的变化数量及影响.研究结果显示,当2020年中国单位GDP碳排量相对于2005年减少率低于40％时,可行情景的个数为0,土地资源无法同时满足3类基本需求;当2020年全国建设用地总量控制在3 305.75×104 hm2～3 325.10× 104 hm2之间时,经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的土地需求可以协调并基本得到满足.情景分析表明,中国远期建设用地供给形势主要取决于经济发展方式转变的深度.如果经济发展方式转变滞后,2020年以后中国经济发展、粮食安全、生态安全的用地冲突将难以调和;如果经济发展方式发生显著进步,土地资源可以满足3类基本需求,为经济社会持续发展提供资源支撑.在现有发展阶段,中国应基于粮食安全和生态安全,实行更加有力的建设用地总量倒逼机制,推进经济发展方式转变.同时,建设用地多情景分析框架能够反向检验不同发展战略目标设定的合理性,综合分析建设用地扩张的影响及潜力,可以应用于国家层面土地调控与规划管理实践.
건설용지총량공제목표적선택관계도토지이용규화여토지굉관조공적과학성,단일목표도향적건설용지규모예측구유명현적국한성.기우국가토지굉관조공수요,본문통주고필경제발전、양식안전、생태안전3류기본용지수구,구건건설용지총량공제적다정경분석광가,운용다원회귀분석、탄평형분석등방법구건토지기본수구모형,결합국가발전전략여목표설정모형삼수,분석예측불동정경하2020년중국건설용지총량적변화수량급영향.연구결과현시,당2020년중국단위GDP탄배량상대우2005년감소솔저우40％시,가행정경적개수위0,토지자원무법동시만족3류기본수구;당2020년전국건설용지총량공제재3 305.75×104 hm2～3 325.10× 104 hm2지간시,경제발전、양식안전、생태안전적토지수구가이협조병기본득도만족.정경분석표명,중국원기건설용지공급형세주요취결우경제발전방식전변적심도.여과경제발전방식전변체후,2020년이후중국경제발전、양식안전、생태안전적용지충돌장난이조화;여과경제발전방식발생현저진보,토지자원가이만족3류기본수구,위경제사회지속발전제공자원지탱.재현유발전계단,중국응기우양식안전화생태안전,실행경가유력적건설용지총량도핍궤제,추진경제발전방식전변.동시,건설용지다정경분석광가능구반향검험불동발전전략목표설정적합이성,종합분석건설용지확장적영향급잠력,가이응용우국가층면토지조공여규화관리실천.
Scientifically forecasting the quantity of construction land expansion decides the feasibility and effectiveness of land use planning and land macro-control.Single objective oriented forecast of construction land expansion has significant limitations.This study systematically considers three main land use objectives,including construction land used for achieving economic development,cultivated land for food security,and ecological land for ecological security.Scenario analysis is used to predict the quantity of construction land expansion under different scenarios （defined based on parameters collected from national development strategies） in 2020,in which,multiple regression analysis and carbon balance analysis methods are applied to predict demands for construction land,cultivated land and ecological land.Results show that land resources cannot meet with the three main land use objectives at the same time when per unit GDP carbon emissions in 2020 decreases by 40％ compared to that in 2005.Land demands for economic development,food security and ecological security can be coordinated and satisfied when the quantity of construction land is between 3 305.75 × 104 hm2 and 3 325.10 × 104 hm2 in 2020.Scenario analysis illustrates that the long-term supply of construction land mainly depends on the degree of transformation of economic development mode.Land use conflicts among economic development,food security and ecological security would be difficult to reconcile if the transformation of economic development mode is lag behind.Land resources can satisfy all three types of land use objectives and support sustainable development if the transformation of economic development mode makes significant progress.In the current stage of economic development,to achieve food security and ecological security,China should apply more powerful mechanisms to control construction land expansion and therefore promote the transformation of economic development mode.Scenario analysis method can also be used to examine the feasibility of different strategic targets,analyze the potential and effects of construction land expansion,and therefore can be applied to national level land management practices,such as land control and land use planning.