CAJ | 학술논문

通过构建时间序列模型，对我国商品房价格波动进行周期性分析，同时细分我国自1998年以来出台的房地产宏观调控政策并划分周期，将二者对比来研究宏观调控政策的调控效应。研究发现从1998年至今，我国房价变动周期房价与宏观调控周期数均为4，且宏观调控效应滞后期为一年，提前于房价变动一年发生。同时，我国近年来房价波动范围相比于1998年至2004年间房价波动范围明显缩小，说明我国宏观调控政策在一定程度上的确起到了平稳房价、抑制其飞速上涨势头的作用。
통과구건시간서렬모형，대아국상품방개격파동진행주기성분석，동시세분아국자1998년이래출태적방지산굉관조공정책병화분주기，장이자대비래연구굉관조공정책적조공효응。연구발현종1998년지금，아국방개변동주기방개여굉관조공주기수균위4，차굉관조공효응체후기위일년，제전우방개변동일년발생。동시，아국근년래방개파동범위상비우1998년지2004년간방개파동범위명현축소，설명아국굉관조공정책재일정정도상적학기도료평은방개、억제기비속상창세두적작용。
By constructing a time series model , and the periodic analysis of the fluctuation of the house price and subdividing the macro-control policies since 1998 , we made a comparative study of the effect of the macro-con-trol policies .Study found that since 1998 , China ’ s housing prices changes and the macro-control cycle rates was 4 , and the lagged effects of the macro-control was one year , occurred one year ahead of changes in prices .Mean-while, the range of price fluctuations in recent years , compared to that between 1998-2004, was significantly re-duced , which indicated that China ’ s macro-control policies to some extent , indeed stabilized the prices , inhibited its rapid rise .