CAJ | 학술논문

引入能源结构优化系数和产业结构优化系数改进了传统的环境负荷模型，构建IIPAT模型，设定了三种情景分析我国未来低碳发展情况。其中，基准情景无法实现我国低碳经济发展目标，也不能完成2020年减排承诺，且能源消费量较大，产生的碳排放较多；政策情景是我国低碳经济发展比较现实、且能完成减排承诺的情景，但也不能实现碳强度降低50％的目标；强化低碳情景能够较理想的实现我国低碳经济发展目标，需要低碳技术创新得到突破。
인입능원결구우화계수화산업결구우화계수개진료전통적배경부하모형，구건IIPAT모형，설정료삼충정경분석아국미래저탄발전정황。기중，기준정경무법실현아국저탄경제발전목표，야불능완성2020년감배승낙，차능원소비량교대，산생적탄배방교다；정책정경시아국저탄경제발전비교현실、차능완성감배승낙적정경，단야불능실현탄강도강저50％적목표；강화저탄정경능구교이상적실현아국저탄경제발전목표，수요저탄기술창신득도돌파。
This paper considers optimization coefficient of energy structure and optimization coefficient of industry structure to build the improved IPAT model, then sets out three scenarios to analyze the development of low carbon in the future. Results indicate, Business as usual cannot achieve the goal of low-carbon economy or emission reduction commitment in 2020, with the huge energy consumption and carbon emission; Polocy Scenario can complete the emission reduction commitment, but cannot finish the goal, that the carbon intensity is cut by fifty percent; Enhance Carbon Scenario can realize the target of low- carbon economy successfully, which needs the breakthrough of low-carbon technology innovation.