CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过对1978年到2008年的中国省级面板数据分析后发现，中国经济波动与每五年召开一次的中国共产党全国代表大会密切相关。每次党代会召开前一年，各省名义GDP增速较平时下降约3．3个百分点；而党代会召开后一年，各省名义GDP增速高出平时约2．6个百分点。进一步研究表明，党代会前后的经济波动与政府对官员的监察力度变化有关。党代会召开之前，中央和地方政府对官员的监察力度加强，这会限制地方政府财政支出总量并改变财政支出结构，导致各省固定资产投资和经济增速双双下降。党代会之后，相关压力的减轻使得政府监察力度下降，在晋升激励下，地方政府财政支出总额和偏向于投资建设的财政支出增加，使得经济增速上升。
본문통과대1978년도2008년적중국성급면판수거분석후발현，중국경제파동여매오년소개일차적중국공산당전국대표대회밀절상관。매차당대회소개전일년，각성명의GDP증속교평시하강약3．3개백분점；이당대회소개후일년，각성명의GDP증속고출평시약2．6개백분점。진일보연구표명，당대회전후적경제파동여정부대관원적감찰력도변화유관。당대회소개지전，중앙화지방정부대관원적감찰력도가강，저회한제지방정부재정지출총량병개변재정지출결구，도치각성고정자산투자화경제증속쌍쌍하강。당대회지후，상관압력적감경사득정부감찰력도하강，재진승격려하，지방정부재정지출총액화편향우투자건설적재정지출증가，사득경제증속상승。
After analyzing 1978--2008 provincial panel data, we find that China＇s economic fluctuation is closely related with the National Congress of the Communist Party held every five years. In detail, the provincial growth rate of GDP of the preceding years of the Congress is 3.3 percent lower than usual, while that of the next years of the Congress is 2.6 percent higher. Further studies show that these fluctuations are connected with the strengthened administration from the central government to the local government during the Congress. Before the Congress, both central and local governments would strengthen the supervision to their subordinates, limiting the fiscal expenditure in total and changing its structure. The result is the contraction of capital expenditure and the drop of GDP growth rate. After the Congress, the pressure is released, resulting in the weakening of the supervision, which brings the increase in total fiscal expenditure and the capital expenditure. The growth rate of GDP then increases.