CAJ | 학술논문

财政预算缺乏有效约束导致地方政府普遍过度负债，如何“硬化”地方政府预算、调整地方政府支出的超额扩张是解决当前大规模债务的基础课题之一。本文借鉴BFI指数构建了中国省级财政预算约束指数，并分析了影响财政预算约束及预算约束调整的相关因素。研究发现，良好的制度环境有利于约束地方政府预算超额扩张；而分权导致的以经济增长为标尺的地方政府投资冲动，是造成地方预算软约束的重要原因。进一步分析结果表明，较差的制度环境更容易诱导地方政府公共支出结构的偏向性配置，从而加剧其在建设性领域中的投资冲动，降低了预算约束调整成功的可能性。在加强制度环境建设的同时，着重改革分权框架下地方政府投资竞争的扭曲性制度激励，有利于治理财政预算软约束并有效控制地方政府的扩张偏向性支出行为。
재정예산결핍유효약속도치지방정부보편과도부채，여하“경화”지방정부예산、조정지방정부지출적초액확장시해결당전대규모채무적기출과제지일。본문차감BFI지수구건료중국성급재정예산약속지수，병분석료영향재정예산약속급예산약속조정적상관인소。연구발현，량호적제도배경유리우약속지방정부예산초액확장；이분권도치적이경제증장위표척적지방정부투자충동，시조성지방예산연약속적중요원인。진일보분석결과표명，교차적제도배경경용역유도지방정부공공지출결구적편향성배치，종이가극기재건설성영역중적투자충동，강저료예산약속조정성공적가능성。재가강제도배경건설적동시，착중개혁분권광가하지방정부투자경쟁적뉴곡성제도격려，유리우치리재정예산연약속병유효공제지방정부적확장편향성지출행위。
For a long time, the fiscal local budget has been short of constraint, leading to the over-debt of local governments. There comes an important problem of how to consolidate the local budget and adjust the excess increase of local expenditures. This paper makes up the soft budget index by using the provincial data, following the method of constructing the Blanchard Fiscal Index. Furthermore, it studies what caused the soft budget of local government and how to manage it successfully. We found that the good institutional environment is good at constraining the excess growth of local budget. Meanwhile, the invest impulse of local government inspired by economic growth competiveness, is the fundamental cause of local soft budget. When discussing about the mechanism, we found that the composition of local expenditures would be distorted when institutional environment got worse, as local governments would invest more in constructing areas. And this has largely decreased the probabilities of local budget adjustment. These all conclude that we should improve the institutional environment, as well as changing the distorted incentives that impelled the over-impulse of local government investment.