CAJ | 학술논문

文章通过建立住房需求与商品消费跨期决策模型，将收入、物价、房价、房贷、利率、人口等经济基本面因素纳入局部均衡分析中，证明了这些变量对住房需求的影响主要取决于购房者的风险态度，住房需求与经济基本面之间主要表现为一种抛物线关系，其开口方向由风险偏好态度决定。采用门限面板模型、平滑转换面板模型和半参估计方法，对1999年到2012卑全国31个省面板数据进行实证检验，表明我国目前购房者主要是风险爱好型。
문장통과건립주방수구여상품소비과기결책모형，장수입、물개、방개、방대、리솔、인구등경제기본면인소납입국부균형분석중，증명료저사변량대주방수구적영향주요취결우구방자적풍험태도，주방수구여경제기본면지간주요표현위일충포물선관계，기개구방향유풍험편호태도결정。채용문한면판모형、평활전환면판모형화반삼고계방법，대1999년도2012비전국31개성면판수거진행실증검험，표명아국목전구방자주요시풍험애호형。
This paper, by building the inter- temporal decision model of housing demand and goods consuming, incorporates some economic fundamentals： income, CP1, housing price, mortgage, interest rates, population and so on into an unified analysis framework and proves that all these variables＇ impacts on housing demand are mainly determined by purchasers＇ different risk preference shaped in a parabola curve, whose orientation is determined by different risk preference. By utilizing Panel Threshold Regression, Panel Smooth Transfer Regerssion and semiparameter to test panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 1999 to 2012, this paper proves that at present, the majority of Chinese housing purchasers are risk lovers.