CAJ | 학술논문

现阶段，我国制造业结构呈现出明显的劳动密集型向资本密集型转变的趋势。本文采用定性和定量的方法，首先研究劳动力需求对于劳动密集型产业增长的影响。其次计算了2010年我国可转移农村剩余劳动力规模，判断劳动密集型产业劳动力的供给情况。结合劳动力需求和供给情况，实证研究发现，劳动力就业数量增速大幅放缓较大程度导致了我国劳动密集型产业增速放缓。而劳动力供给数量在理论上较为充足。因此判断劳动力就业数量增速放缓的原因有可能是农村剩余劳动力在转移过程中受经济和政策因素等影响了实际转移的效果。同时也有可能由于劳动力成本上升过快，使得劳动密集型制造业调整了资本劳动比，逐渐用资本对劳动力进行替代，使劳动密集型制造业也逐渐向资本密集型转变。
현계단，아국제조업결구정현출명현적노동밀집형향자본밀집형전변적추세。본문채용정성화정량적방법，수선연구노동력수구대우노동밀집형산업증장적영향。기차계산료2010년아국가전이농촌잉여노동력규모，판단노동밀집형산업노동력적공급정황。결합노동력수구화공급정황，실증연구발현，노동력취업수량증속대폭방완교대정도도치료아국노동밀집형산업증속방완。이노동력공급수량재이론상교위충족。인차판단노동력취업수량증속방완적원인유가능시농촌잉여노동력재전이과정중수경제화정책인소등영향료실제전이적효과。동시야유가능유우노동력성본상승과쾌，사득노동밀집형제조업조정료자본노동비，축점용자본대노동력진행체대，사노동밀집형제조업야축점향자본밀집형전변。
At present, Chlna＇s manufacturing structure is in a transition from labor- intensive to capital- intensive. In this paper, using qualitative and quantitative methods, we firstly studied the influence of labor demand for labor- intensive＇s growth. Secondly, we calculated the scale of China＇s rural surplus labor that can be transferred in 2010, and analyzed the labor supply situation of the labor- in- tensive industry. Based on the labor demand and supply situation, through empirical research, we found that the number of labor employ- ment growth slowed sharply leading to a large extent the slowdown of China＇s labor- intensive industries. However, the number of labor supply is more abundant in theory. Thus the reason for the number of employed labor force growth slowing down may be the rural surplus labor＇s transfer process lagging behind the expected by some economic and social factors. There also may be due to the rapid rise in labor costs, making labor- intensive manufacturing adjust the capital - labor ratio. The labor force is gradually replaced by capital, so labor- intensive to capital- intensive manufacturing sector is gradually changing.