改革
改革
개혁
Reform
2014年
3期
31~39
,共null页
调整产业结构 潜在经济增速 国外经济增长方式
調整產業結構 潛在經濟增速 國外經濟增長方式
조정산업결구 잠재경제증속 국외경제증장방식
the adjustment of industrial structure, potential economic growth rate, foreign economic growth method
现阶段我国正处于产业结构由制造业向服务业转移的关键时期。由于制造业劳动生产率及其增速通常高于服务业，这种转移将导致社会总劳动生产率增速降低，进而导致实际经济增速下降。同时，由于服务业拥有较强的就业吸纳能力，劳动力市场仍保持稳定，甚至达到充分就业状态。换句话说，我国的潜在经济增速可能已经开始下降。对此，应更加审慎使用过度扩张的货币政策等需求管理措施，与此同时应强化供给面的改革。
現階段我國正處于產業結構由製造業嚮服務業轉移的關鍵時期。由于製造業勞動生產率及其增速通常高于服務業，這種轉移將導緻社會總勞動生產率增速降低，進而導緻實際經濟增速下降。同時，由于服務業擁有較彊的就業吸納能力，勞動力市場仍保持穩定，甚至達到充分就業狀態。換句話說，我國的潛在經濟增速可能已經開始下降。對此，應更加審慎使用過度擴張的貨幣政策等需求管理措施，與此同時應彊化供給麵的改革。
현계단아국정처우산업결구유제조업향복무업전이적관건시기。유우제조업노동생산솔급기증속통상고우복무업，저충전이장도치사회총노동생산솔증속강저，진이도치실제경제증속하강。동시，유우복무업옹유교강적취업흡납능력，노동력시장잉보지은정，심지체도충분취업상태。환구화설，아국적잠재경제증속가능이경개시하강。대차，응경가심신사용과도확장적화폐정책등수구관리조시，여차동시응강화공급면적개혁。
At present, China is in a crucial period of industrial structure transition from manufacture to service industry. As the productivity and its growth of manufacturing sector is generally higher than that of the service sector, this shift will result in a reduction of the total labor productivity growth rate, thereby resulting in the real economic growth. Meanwhile, as the services sector has a strong ability to absorb employment, the labor market will remain stable, even at full employment. In other words, China＇s potential economic growth may have started to be in the trend of deceleration. In this regard, we should be more prudent to the use of over-expansionary monetary policy and other aggregate demand management measures, while supply-side reforms should be strengthened as soon as possible.
