经济经纬
經濟經緯
경제경위
Economic Survey
2014年
2期
132~139
,共null页
财政规则 政府支出 经济波动 DSGE模型 贝叶斯估计
財政規則 政府支齣 經濟波動 DSGE模型 貝葉斯估計
재정규칙 정부지출 경제파동 DSGE모형 패협사고계
Fiscal Policy Rules; Government Spending; Economic Volatility; DSGE Model; Bayesian Estimation
笔者基于1999年～2011年中国宏观季度数据,运用贝叶斯方法估计了一个包含政府部门的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型,分析在一定财政规则下政府支出扩张对宏观经济的影响,得出了需求冲击是导致中国宏观经济波动主要原因的结论.
筆者基于1999年～2011年中國宏觀季度數據,運用貝葉斯方法估計瞭一箇包含政府部門的新凱恩斯動態隨機一般均衡（DSGE）模型,分析在一定財政規則下政府支齣擴張對宏觀經濟的影響,得齣瞭需求遲擊是導緻中國宏觀經濟波動主要原因的結論.
필자기우1999년～2011년중국굉관계도수거,운용패협사방법고계료일개포함정부부문적신개은사동태수궤일반균형（DSGE）모형,분석재일정재정규칙하정부지출확장대굉관경제적영향,득출료수구충격시도치중국굉관경제파동주요원인적결론.
This paper analyzes the impact of government spending expansion on aggregate economy in China by using new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （DSGE） model and Bayesian estimation technique subject to Chinese 1999 -2011 quarterly da- ta. The results show that the expansion of government spending can not only increase output, but also induce a crowding-out effect on private consumption in the short term. Meanwhile, the dynamic responses of aggregate economy to demand shocks are significantly higher than that to supply shocks. Finally, by using sensitivity analysis it proves that the regulatory effects of government spending un- der the low consumption habit preference are significantly better than the effects under the high consumption habit preferences. There- fore, reducing the scale of government spending and consumption habits preference is a feasible way to achieve the balanced develop- ment of Chinese economy.
