CAJ | 학술논문

以生命周期假说为依据,通过引入人口年龄结构因素,构建了消费理论模型;利用2003～2011年的浙江省地市级面板数据,考察了少儿人口抚养比、老年人口抚养比与农村居民消费之间的关系.实证结果表明,少儿人口抚养比对农村居民消费呈显著的负向作用,少儿人口抚养比每增加1个单位,消费将平均减少0.044％;老年人口抚养比对农村居民消费呈显著的正向作用,老年人口抚养比每增加1个单位,消费将平均增加0.76％.当前浙江省少儿人口抚养比呈递减态势,而老年人口抚养比则呈递增态势,两者协同促进了农村居民的消费.
이생명주기가설위의거,통과인입인구년령결구인소,구건료소비이론모형;이용2003～2011년적절강성지시급면판수거,고찰료소인인구무양비、노년인구무양비여농촌거민소비지간적관계.실증결과표명,소인인구무양비대농촌거민소비정현저적부향작용,소인인구무양비매증가1개단위,소비장평균감소0.044％;노년인구무양비대농촌거민소비정현저적정향작용,노년인구무양비매증가1개단위,소비장평균증가0.76％.당전절강성소인인구무양비정체감태세,이노년인구무양비칙정체증태세,량자협동촉진료농촌거민적소비.
Based on life- cycle hypothesis, this paper constructs a consumption theory model by introducing the population age structure factor. Taking an advantage of Zhejiang municipal panel data in the year from 2003 to 2011, we examine the relationship between child dependency ratio, old - age dependency ratio with rural residents＇ consumption. The conclusions indicate that the child population dependency ratio has a significant negative impact on rural residents＇consump- tion, a one - unit increase of child population dependency ratio will reduce the consumption by an average of 0. 044% ;and the old -age population dependency ratio has a significant positive im- pact on rural residents＇ consumption, a one - unit increase of old - age population dependency ra- tio will increase the consumption by an average of 0.76%. At present, Child dependency ratio shows a decreasing trend, while old - age dependency ratio shows an increasing trend, both trends act synergistically in promoting the consumption of rural residents in Zhejiang province.