CAJ | 학술논문

有关中国流通产业安全的现有经验文献测算出一个具体的安全度数值，可称之为“基数安全度”方法，但在指标归类、赋权及判别标准上存在主观偏差问题。本文在指标选取中遵循可加性原则，避免了此类偏差，并基于外资商业地理布局非均衡性对指标值进行结构调整，基于外资商业历史发展轨迹对指标值进行趋势调整，测算出反映中国流通产业安全相对变化的“序数安全度”。结果显示，中国流通产业安全在2006—2011年间持续加速恶化，其中原因在于中国流通产业政策规制缺失，外资商业进入速度加快、地理分布越来越不均衡、整体实力增强，以及中国流通产业自下而上的“逆向型”开放路径。
유관중국류통산업안전적현유경험문헌측산출일개구체적안전도수치，가칭지위“기수안전도”방법，단재지표귀류、부권급판별표준상존재주관편차문제。본문재지표선취중준순가가성원칙，피면료차류편차，병기우외자상업지리포국비균형성대지표치진행결구조정，기우외자상업역사발전궤적대지표치진행추세조정，측산출반영중국류통산업안전상대변화적“서수안전도”。결과현시，중국류통산업안전재2006—2011년간지속가속악화，기중원인재우중국류통산업정책규제결실，외자상업진입속도가쾌、지리분포월래월불균형、정체실력증강，이급중국류통산업자하이상적“역향형”개방로경。
Most of the existing empirical literatures on Chinese circulation industry security estimate a specific security value, or say cardinal security, but have subjective problems such as index sorting and weighting, and final judgement standard. This paper attempts to avoid these problems by selecting indices with additivity, adjusts original results through structural adjustment and tendency adjustment methods, against the unbalanced geographic distributing and the historic development locus of foreign commerce in China respectively, and estimates an ordinal security reflecting the relative change of Chinese circulation industry security. The results show that Chinese circulation industry security deteriorates faster and faster in the period of 2006--201I, and the causes may lie in China＇s lacking policy regulations of circulation industry, foreign commerce＇s entering China with faster paces, more unbalanced geographic distributing and their much more powerful competitiveness on the whole, and the converse open-up path Chinese distributional industry had followed.