CAJ | 학술논문

体制变革已经被证明是中国经济增长的主要原因。但是，在过去的30多年里，中国在其选择的体制变革道路上“走”的怎么样？体制变革是更容易还是变得更难呢？增量式与体制外的变革方式还能不能如之前一样是我们变革的主旋律呢？本文在分析中国体制变革的理论逻辑基础上提炼出体制弹性的指标，使用1982—2011年28个省（市、自治区）的面板数据捕捉中国改革开放30多年体制弹性的变化态势，发现中国的体制弹性正在不断弱化，且原有体制变革方式给中国经济所带来的增长空间已经日益狭小，体制变革已然进入“深水期”，使得变革的难度越来越大。在假设其他条件不变的情况下，且中国具有改革初期的体制弹性，那么各省的理想产出水平至少是2011年的1．499倍。因此，只有加快体制变革，中国的经济还具有快速增长的可能。
체제변혁이경피증명시중국경제증장적주요원인。단시，재과거적30다년리，중국재기선택적체제변혁도로상“주”적즘요양？체제변혁시경용역환시변득경난니？증량식여체제외적변혁방식환능불능여지전일양시아문변혁적주선률니？본문재분석중국체제변혁적이론라집기출상제련출체제탄성적지표，사용1982—2011년28개성（시、자치구）적면판수거포착중국개혁개방30다년체제탄성적변화태세，발현중국적체제탄성정재불단약화，차원유체제변혁방식급중국경제소대래적증장공간이경일익협소，체제변혁이연진입“심수기”，사득변혁적난도월래월대。재가설기타조건불변적정황하，차중국구유개혁초기적체제탄성，나요각성적이상산출수평지소시2011년적1．499배。인차，지유가쾌체제변혁，중국적경제환구유쾌속증장적가능。
Institutional reform has been proven to be the main cause of economic growth in China. However, there are still some questions： how is the performance of Chinese institutional reform？ Will the incremental and outside system reform still be an important part of Chinese reform？ We construct an index system to measure elasticity of institutional reform on the basis of the theoretical logic of institutional reform. We analyze the panel data of 28 provinces during 1982--2011, capture the tendency of institutional elasticity since China implemented the reform and opening-up policy. We find that the institutional elasticity is weakening, and the growth contributed by reform as before is limited and institutional reform is getting harder. If China holds the institutional elasticity as early stage of reform and other assumption keeps still, the ideal output is at least 1. 499 times as much as that of 2011. In conclusion, the Chinese economic growth is likely to speed up with the help of further institutional reform.