CAJ | 학술논문

文章采用投入产出法对中国21个产业部门隐含碳排放量进行了测算，测算结果显示不同产业部门的隐含碳排放强度存在较大差异，碳排放呈现产业高度集中的特点。但整体来看，如果仅以产业部门直接碳排放强度估算我国产业碳排放强度，实际上会在很大程度上低估我国产业部门实际碳排放水平。中国的经济增长是典型的出口导向型模式，结合贸易结构的研究发现：位居中关产品贸易额前20位的产品与我国隐含碳排放量较大的产业部门产品具有较强的匹配性。这意味着，一旦欧美等国对我国征收碳关税，将大幅度提高我国产品出口市场的关税水平，从而对中国经济产生较为严重的影响。
문장채용투입산출법대중국21개산업부문은함탄배방량진행료측산，측산결과현시불동산업부문적은함탄배방강도존재교대차이，탄배방정현산업고도집중적특점。단정체래간，여과부이산업부문직접탄배방강도고산아국산업탄배방강도，실제상회재흔대정도상저고아국산업부문실제탄배방수평。중국적경제증장시전형적출구도향형모식，결합무역결구적연구발현：위거중관산품무역액전20위적산품여아국은함탄배방량교대적산업부문산품구유교강적필배성。저의미착，일단구미등국대아국정수탄관세，장대폭도제고아국산품출구시장적관세수평，종이대중국경제산생교위엄중적영향。
This paper adopts input-output model to measure the embodied carbon emissions in 21 industrial sectors, and shows that embodied carbon emissions in 21 industrial sectors differ widely and are featured by high industry concentration. But as a whole, the measurement of in- dustrial carbon emission intensity directly through direct carbon emissions of industrial sectors factually underestimates real carbon emission levels of industrial sectors in China to a great ex- tent. Economic growth in China is a typically export-oriented mode, so the study based on trade structure indicates that products in top 20 of Sino-US trade volume are a good match for products of Chinese industrial sectors with greater embodied carbon emissions, showing that if Europe, America and other countries impose carbon tariffs on China, the tariff levels of Chinese export products markets will greatly increase, thereby having a severe effect on Chinese economy.