CAJ | 학술논문

近年来,在我国流动性充裕的同时,房地产价格也屡创新高。鉴于中经网数据库尚未更新至2012年,选用2005—2011年M2与M1之差季度数据作为流动性指标,将收入作为控制变量,研究流动性对房地产价格的长短期影响。结论表明房地产价格与流动性之间确实存在长期均衡关系,即流动性充裕推动了房地产价格上涨。在短期,外生冲击导致房价偏离长期均衡趋势时,系统存在的调整功能会使房地产价格最终恢复到长期均衡。最后,就如何进行流动性管理作简要评判。
근년래,재아국류동성충유적동시,방지산개격야루창신고。감우중경망수거고상미경신지2012년,선용2005—2011년M2여M1지차계도수거작위류동성지표,장수입작위공제변량,연구류동성대방지산개격적장단기영향。결론표명방지산개격여류동성지간학실존재장기균형관계,즉류동성충유추동료방지산개격상창。재단기,외생충격도치방개편리장기균형추세시,계통존재적조정공능회사방지산개격최종회복도장기균형。최후,취여하진행류동성관리작간요평판。
In recent years,the authors researched the influence of liquidity on real estate price in short and long run by choosing the seasonal difference between M2and M1from 2005to 2011as liquidity indicator and using income as control variable.The conclusion reveals that there is equilibrium between real estate price and liquidity in the long term,that is to say,the ample liquidity promotes real estate price to go up.In the short term,if exogenous shocks cause prices to deviate from the trend in longrun equilibrium,adjustment in the system will cause real estate prices to return to the long-run one eventually.At last,this paper makes some comment on how to manage liquidity.