林业经济
林業經濟
임업경제
Forestry Economics
2014年
3期
16~21
,共null页
退耕还林 成果保持意愿 影响因素 Probit模型
退耕還林 成果保持意願 影響因素 Probit模型
퇴경환림 성과보지의원 영향인소 Probit모형
returning the grain land to the forest land; willingness to maintain the results from the project; affecting factors; Probit models
根据京津风沙源治理区山西省大同县196户农户调查数据，通过建立Probit和Logit模型，分析了农户退耕成果保持意愿及影响因素。结果表明，受访农户中愿意维护退耕成果的农户占45.9％，退耕成果巩固的难度依然较大；受访者受教育程度、人均年收入等13个变量对农户退耕成果保持意愿具有显著影响，农户退耕成果保持与否主要取决于土地利用收益的比较。
根據京津風沙源治理區山西省大同縣196戶農戶調查數據，通過建立Probit和Logit模型，分析瞭農戶退耕成果保持意願及影響因素。結果錶明，受訪農戶中願意維護退耕成果的農戶佔45.9％，退耕成果鞏固的難度依然較大；受訪者受教育程度、人均年收入等13箇變量對農戶退耕成果保持意願具有顯著影響，農戶退耕成果保持與否主要取決于土地利用收益的比較。
근거경진풍사원치리구산서성대동현196호농호조사수거，통과건립Probit화Logit모형，분석료농호퇴경성과보지의원급영향인소。결과표명，수방농호중원의유호퇴경성과적농호점45.9％，퇴경성과공고적난도의연교대；수방자수교육정도、인균년수입등13개변량대농호퇴경성과보지의원구유현저영향，농호퇴경성과보지여부주요취결우토지이용수익적비교。
Based on the survey data from 196 farmer households in Datong County, Shanxi Province, the paper analyses the farmer＇s willingness to maintain the results from the project and affecting factors by applying Probit and Logit models. The analysis shows that there is a bigger difficulty in maintaining the results from the project because only 45.9% farmer interviewers are willing to do so. It also shows that 13 variables including educational background and anural income have significant effects on the willingness to maintain the results from project, and whether the farmers will do that is mainly decided by the comparison among the benefits from different land using.
