CAJ | 학술논문

为评估汇改七年来人民币汇率变动对中国出口的影响，我们用分布滞后模型与自回归模型估计了人民币的汇率传递效应，用自回归分布滞后误差修正模型估计了中国出口的价格弹性与收入弹性。研究发现，在考虑汇率传递效应及进口国收入变动的情况下，人民币名义有效汇率升值仍会对中国出口（数量及总额）产生显著负面影响。在人民币盯住美元时期内，名义有效汇率升值对出口的负面影响比人民币对美元升值时期更加明显。
위평고회개칠년래인민폐회솔변동대중국출구적영향，아문용분포체후모형여자회귀모형고계료인민폐적회솔전체효응，용자회귀분포체후오차수정모형고계료중국출구적개격탄성여수입탄성。연구발현，재고필회솔전체효응급진구국수입변동적정황하，인민폐명의유효회솔승치잉회대중국출구（수량급총액）산생현저부면영향。재인민폐정주미원시기내，명의유효회솔승치대출구적부면영향비인민폐대미원승치시기경가명현。
To evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation on China＇s exports since the RMB ex- change rate reform, we estimate the exchange rate pass -through effect, and the price elasticity and income e- lasticity of China＇s exports. We found that RMB nominal effective exchange rate appreciation still significantly reduced China＇s exports even considering the pass -through effect and the shocks on importers＇ income. When pegging to U. S dollar, the nominal effective exchange rate appreciation of RMB would impair China＇s export more severely.