CAJ | 학술논문

本文构建了新的通货膨胀动态方程，认为通货膨胀与实际产出缺口变化程度或实际产出和潜在产出变化程度密切相关；同时发现无论是在纯前向模型还是混合模型中，在名义价格粘性下通胀都具有惯性特征，从而在新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线（NKPC）的框架下提供了由“名义价格粘性——通胀惯性——通胀”传导的逻辑一贯的解释，从理论上进一步完善了Gali＆Gertler（1999）的经典模型。我国1985年以来的省级面板数据支持理论模型的结论，结果表明：通胀惯性因素（含滞后一期和二期通胀）具有显著的自稳定功能；通胀预期表现出自我实现特征；成本因素（包括滞后一期劳动力成本、资本成本）变异和实际产出变异对通胀的效应是显著正向的，而潜在产出的正向变异却能抑制通胀，即潜在生产率增长越快，经济体越能吸收通胀压力。
본문구건료신적통화팽창동태방정，인위통화팽창여실제산출결구변화정도혹실제산출화잠재산출변화정도밀절상관；동시발현무론시재순전향모형환시혼합모형중，재명의개격점성하통창도구유관성특정，종이재신개은사비리보사곡선（NKPC）적광가하제공료유“명의개격점성——통창관성——통창”전도적라집일관적해석，종이론상진일보완선료Gali＆Gertler（1999）적경전모형。아국1985년이래적성급면판수거지지이론모형적결론，결과표명：통창관성인소（함체후일기화이기통창）구유현저적자은정공능；통창예기표현출자아실현특정；성본인소（포괄체후일기노동력성본、자본성본）변이화실제산출변이대통창적효응시현저정향적，이잠재산출적정향변이각능억제통창，즉잠재생산솔증장월쾌，경제체월능흡수통창압력。
We build new inflation dynamics equations that inflation and real output gap changes or changes in real output and potential output are closely related; and also found that, to the pure model or mixed model, un- der nominal price stickiness , inflation has inertia characteristics, so in the New Keynesian Phillips curve （ NK- PC） framework providing a logically consistent explanation of ＂nominal price stickiness - inertia - infla- tion＂, in theory further improve the Gali ＆ Gertler （ 1999 ） classic model. Provincial Panel Data in China since 1985 supported the conclusions of the theoretical model, the regression results show that： the inflation inertia factors （with a lag of one and two inflation） has a significant self- stabilization function; the expected inflation performance self- realization feature;cost factors （including one lagged labor cost and capital cost）variation and product component variation have significantly positive effect on inflation;positive variation of potential output was able to curb inflation, and the faster the potential productivity growth , the economy more able to absorb in- flationary pressures.