CAJ | 학술논문

本文通过对我国历年城镇住房存量的建筑面积和城镇常住人口人均住房面积的测算，说明我国住房供给总量存在着严重不足，这是导致我国房价持续过快上涨的根本原因。本文进一步指出，住房供给不足造成的房价持续上涨是住房存量高空置率的基本原因，投机活动是其次生原因。而保障性住房严重供给不足是造成住房总量失衡和结构失衡的重要原因。鉴于我国政府担负着比其他国家政府在住房供给上大得多的责任，本文认为，为如期实现小康住房目标，我国政府应该把增加住房供给作为房地产政策的核心内容，在增加住房供给上、特别是保障性住房供给上应有重大的举措。
본문통과대아국력년성진주방존량적건축면적화성진상주인구인균주방면적적측산，설명아국주방공급총량존재착엄중불족，저시도치아국방개지속과쾌상창적근본원인。본문진일보지출，주방공급불족조성적방개지속상창시주방존량고공치솔적기본원인，투궤활동시기차생원인。이보장성주방엄중공급불족시조성주방총량실형화결구실형적중요원인。감우아국정부담부착비기타국가정부재주방공급상대득다적책임，본문인위，위여기실현소강주방목표，아국정부응해파증가주방공급작위방지산정책적핵심내용，재증가주방공급상、특별시보장성주방공급상응유중대적거조。
This paper estimates housing floor area of China cities and towns in total and per capita for resident population, using the time series data of the newly built housing area of cities and towns over the years issued by China National Bureau of Statistics. The results show that, Chinese housing stock of cities and towns in 2012 only 12. 811 billion square meters, housing floor area per capita only 18 square meters. However, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China＇ s housing floor area per capita of cities and towns is 32. 9 square meters in 2012. Multiply it by the resident population figures of cities and towns, Chinese housing stock of cities and towns in 2012 is 23. 419 billion square meters. Many experts and scholars to use that da- ta for international comparisons, such as same data for Singapore is 27 square meters, for South Korea is 33 square meters in 2010, to illustrate that the housing supply in Chinese cities and towns is already abundant. In fact, the data on housing floor area per capita in cities and towns issued by National Bureau of Statistics is obtained household sample survey, only covers housing residents in cities and towns, missed non housing owners in the town, so it can not reflect the real situation of housing. Use this number as a measure of housing floor area per capita in cities and towns will cause a serious overestimate. The target of housing in cities and towns for the China full realization of well-off in 2020 is 35 square meters in construction area per capita. By 2020 China＇ s urbanization rate is estimated as 63% , resident population in cities and towns is expected to be about 850 million. If this standard as the goal, China housing stock area of cities and towns will be about 30 billon square meters in 2020. Considering the existing housing stock and depreciation （ reno- vation） needs, in order to achieve a well-off goal of urban housing in less than ten years, it is needed to construct new housing more than 2 billion square meters yearly, while only 1.01 billon square meters of new housing was constructed in 2012. Insufficient China housing supply and public housing shortage has close relationship. In 20i0 China public housing coverage is only about 5%. According to the ＂Twelfth Five Year Plan＂, to the end of 2015 it will reach a- bout 20% , which means that the stock of the low-income housing will be up to 49 million sets. And in order to re- alize the target of basic housing security in 2020 （ Urban public housing coverage to 40% ） , low-income housing stock should be 98 million sets. No doubt, China in the next 7 years, faced with the onerous task of greatly increas- ing housing supply. To meet the basic housing needs of the masses plays an important role in improving people＇ s livelihood and so- cial stability. Especially to build public housing for migrant workers is the unavoidable responsibility of government in the process of urbanization. Especially the public ownership system of land in China make China government shoulder more important responsibility to increase housing supply, particular the public housing supply than any other major country in the world. At the same time, China＇ s conditions also make China do have advantage in providing public housing. Speed up the public housing （especially public rental housing） construction is conducive to narrowing the income gap, the release of consumer demand, and digesting excess capacity. Sincerely hope that the authorities could be from a strategic height, to further improve the housing supply, to further strengthen the senses of responsibility and urgen- cy, to full play to the advantages of the system of our country, to follow the rules of market economy, and to realize the housing goals of overall well-off society in China on schedule.