CAJ | 학술논문

实现居者有其房，是人们良好的愿景。近年不断攀升的房价直接影响着社会幸福感的提高。为此，我国推出房地产“限购令”，以期调整房地产市场，控制房价。本文着重分析此次“限购令”的政策效果。梳理了影响城市房价各种因素的文献；以全国33个大中城市的月度数据为研究样本，构建倍差法、类倍差法和倾向得分匹配法三种房地产“限购令”政策绩效评价模型，剔除其他房价影响因素，使用面板数据Pool-OLS和系统GMM计量分析方法检验“限购令”对房价的独立政策效果。结果表明，房地产限购政策对抑制房价上涨，促进房价理性回归起了显著作用，但其作用力度仍待加强。最后，提出我国房地产调控的相关政策建议。
실현거자유기방，시인문량호적원경。근년불단반승적방개직접영향착사회행복감적제고。위차，아국추출방지산“한구령”，이기조정방지산시장，공제방개。본문착중분석차차“한구령”적정책효과。소리료영향성시방개각충인소적문헌；이전국33개대중성시적월도수거위연구양본，구건배차법、류배차법화경향득분필배법삼충방지산“한구령”정책적효평개모형，척제기타방개영향인소，사용면판수거Pool-OLS화계통GMM계량분석방법검험“한구령”대방개적독립정책효과。결과표명，방지산한구정책대억제방개상창，촉진방개이성회귀기료현저작용，단기작용력도잉대가강。최후，제출아국방지산조공적상관정책건의。
In recent years, the rising housing price has affected the improvement of social happiness. It＇ s diffi- cult and expensive to buy a house, which remains an obsession for ordinary people. Therefore, the housing restriction policy has been implemented in order to adjust the real estate market and control the housing price. After several years＇ implementation,it＇ s time to analyze its effects. This paper focuses on the effects of the housing restriction policy. Firstly, we sort out literature about the factors influencing housing price of cities, including income, expecta- tions, regional economic and social investment and monetary policy. Based on the results of analysis, we pick up fac- tors influencing housing prices as controlled variables of the empirical analysis. Then, using the data of 33 large or medium-sized cities as the research samples, we modeled three performance evaluation model of housing restriction policy by means of DID, Class DID and Propensity Score Matching methods to eliminate other influencing factors on house price. Besides, we applied panel data Pool-OLS and System GMM to test the independent effects that the housing restriction policy had on the housing price in our country. Under DID model, cities with the implementation of the restriction policy belong to treatment group while those without belong to control group. By means of control- ling other factors, we compare the difference between two groups after the implementation of restriction policy so as to examine the effects of restriction policy. The results show that if we consider real-estate restriction policy as an in- dependent factor during the sample period, it restrained regional housing prices significantly. However, considering the range of controlling housing price, housing price dropped 40 Yuan per square meter under Pool-OLS estimation method and dropped 57 -60 Yuan per square meter under System GMM method. Compared with DID method, Class DID method allow the existence of common time trend of treatment group and control group. Its results also show that restriction policy could control housing price remarkably. After the implementation of restriction policy, average price of residential decreased about 31 -37 Yuan under Pool-OLS estimation method and decreased about 41 -57 Yuan under System GMM method. Under performance evaluation model of Propensity Score Matching methods, three dif- ferent kinds of matching methods, which are Nearest Neighbor Matching, Radius Matching and Kernel Matching, show that restriction policy did restrain housing price from rising significantly. The differences of ATF about the im- plementation of restriction policy are all negative, ranging from -0. 136 to -0. 127. Housing price of cities with im- plementation of restriction policy increased 12. 7% - 13.6% less than those without. The results of PSM method are greater than those of DID and Class DID methods, as PSM method could find out samples similar with treatment group for control group to control the selectivity bias of the samples. Various methods are used to examine the ro- bustness of real-estate restriction policy effect, including first order difference GMM estimation, regression based on sub-samples which are divided according to east, central and west regions, and fine adjustment of starting and end point of sample time. All show that the housing restriction policy has showed marked effects in the real estate regula- tion and promoted the housing price to return to rationality. To sum up, restriction policy has played a significant role on curbing the soaring property price but it declined slightly. The policy effects need to be reinforced. To promote housing price to return to rationality, property-purchasing limitations and regulations should be carried out vigorous- ly. At last, we proposed three recommendations as follow. （ 1 ） Promote the reform of tax system and reduce depend- ence on the land finance of local government. （2） Improve the real estate information disclosure system and strengthen the information collection of housing market. （3） Offer rational guidance to expectations and keep real estate policy objectives consistent.