CAJ | 학술논문

由于结构分解方法（SDA）的非唯一性缺点，对一种变量变化存在多种分解形式和分析方法，且结果存在一定差异．基于此，引入一种更为全面的分解方法，路径基础法（PBM），通过对参数的估算来描述并确定时间路径，精确分析各变量对总变化产生的影响．以甘肃省为例，对2002年至2007年间本地用水总量变化进行了分解研究．利用PBM对用水强度，生产技术和最终需求三因素变化对用水总量变化的影响进行了实证分析．结果表明：大多数部门用水强度降低导致了本地用水量的减少；生产技术的改变导致了本地用水量的减少；各产业部门最终需求的增加导致了本地用水量的增加．通过对三个影响因素的综合研究发现，种植业中三个因素对本地用水总量变化的影响最大，这说明甘肃省用水量变化主要是由种植业的用水蛮化决定的．
유우결구분해방법（SDA）적비유일성결점，대일충변량변화존재다충분해형식화분석방법，차결과존재일정차이．기우차，인입일충경위전면적분해방법，로경기출법（PBM），통과대삼수적고산래묘술병학정시간로경，정학분석각변량대총변화산생적영향．이감숙성위례，대2002년지2007년간본지용수총량변화진행료분해연구．이용PBM대용수강도，생산기술화최종수구삼인소변화대용수총량변화적영향진행료실증분석．결과표명：대다수부문용수강도강저도치료본지용수량적감소；생산기술적개변도치료본지용수량적감소；각산업부문최종수구적증가도치료본지용수량적증가．통과대삼개영향인소적종합연구발현，충식업중삼개인소대본지용수총량변화적영향최대，저설명감숙성용수량변화주요시유충식업적용수만화결정적．
There are many methods of decomposition in traditional structural decomposition analysis （SDA） due to non-uniqueness. The random selection of SDA often causes differences in results. Based on this, we introduced a new method, called path-based method （PBM）, to precisely analyze the impact of elements on the total variations. In this paper, taking Gansu province as research area, the changes in local water resource utilization were investigated from 2002 to 2007. PBM was used to analyze tile impacts of local water utilization with water utilization intensity, production technology and final demand. Results show that declining water utilization per unit of gross output leads to lower local water resource utilization in most sectors; the effect of production technology suggests that the change in production technology causes a decrease trend in local water resource utilization; increasing final demand always yields increasing water resource utilization. Through the study of three factors affecting water resource utilization, cultivation accounts for the largest portion in the contribution of the changes in water resource utilization. It indicates that local water resource utilization is mainly decided by cultivation in Gansu province