城市问题
城市問題
성시문제
Urban Problems
2014年
4期
24~29
,共null页
物流规划 物流园区容量 Verhulst生长方程 物流量
物流規劃 物流園區容量 Verhulst生長方程 物流量
물류규화 물류완구용량 Verhulst생장방정 물류량
logistics planning; capacity of logistics park; Verhulst equation; amount of logistics
引入Verhulst生长方程对城市GDP以及物流业增加值进行拟合和预测，运用引力模型计算城市物流量，并运用线性回归方法确定物流量与物流业增加值之间的关系，最终根据确定物流园区规模的经验公式得出城市物流园区容量计算公式。同时，选取山东省济南市对物流园区容量模型进行实证模拟，结果表明，济南市物流园区规划已超前于物流业及经济发展状况，其物流园区规划总量已达济南市物流园区容量的最大值。
引入Verhulst生長方程對城市GDP以及物流業增加值進行擬閤和預測，運用引力模型計算城市物流量，併運用線性迴歸方法確定物流量與物流業增加值之間的關繫，最終根據確定物流園區規模的經驗公式得齣城市物流園區容量計算公式。同時，選取山東省濟南市對物流園區容量模型進行實證模擬，結果錶明，濟南市物流園區規劃已超前于物流業及經濟髮展狀況，其物流園區規劃總量已達濟南市物流園區容量的最大值。
인입Verhulst생장방정대성시GDP이급물류업증가치진행의합화예측，운용인력모형계산성시물류량，병운용선성회귀방법학정물류량여물류업증가치지간적관계，최종근거학정물류완구규모적경험공식득출성시물류완구용량계산공식。동시，선취산동성제남시대물류완구용량모형진행실증모의，결과표명，제남시물류완구규화이초전우물류업급경제발전상황，기물류완구규화총량이체제남시물류완구용량적최대치。
Verhulst equation is introduced to fit and forecast GDP and the added value of logistics industry. The a- mount of logistics is computed by gravity model, and the linear regression is used to define the relationship between the amount of logistics and the added value of logistics industry. Finally, the formula of capacity of city logistics park is defined according to the empirical formula of the scale of logistics park. Also, this essay takes Jinan City to do empirical simulation for the model of research on capacity of city logistics park. The simulation results show that logistics park planning of Jinan is ahead of its logistics industry and economic development, and the total size of the planned has reached the maximum capacity of logistics park of Jinan.
