CAJ | 학술논문

从农村经济总产值、农户收入、产业结构和城镇化等多个维度，构建了流通业对农村经济影响途径的理论模型，并采用典型相关分析和结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）对上述模型进行检验。检验结果表明：第一，流通业发展与农村经济增长高度相关，两者具有长期均衡关系和动态调整机制；第二，流通业既可通过提高农村经济总产值和农村就业等直接方式影响农村经济增长，也可通过提高农户收入、推动城镇化和拉动农村固定资产投资等间接方式促进农村经济增长；第三，我国农村就业结构较为单一，流通业仍是吸纳农村就业增长的主要途径，但流通业的发展并没有促进农村其他产业的就业增长；第四，与城市流通业相比，农村经济发展水平和流通业的落后是导致农村流通业对农村产业结构失去“先导性”和“关联性”功能的主要原因；最后，在不同途径上流通业对农村经济的促进作用时滞期大致相同，流通业发展对农村经济的综合影响大约在第四年最为显著。
종농촌경제총산치、농호수입、산업결구화성진화등다개유도，구건료류통업대농촌경제영향도경적이론모형，병채용전형상관분석화결구향량자회귀모형（SVAR）대상술모형진행검험。검험결과표명：제일，류통업발전여농촌경제증장고도상관，량자구유장기균형관계화동태조정궤제；제이，류통업기가통과제고농촌경제총산치화농촌취업등직접방식영향농촌경제증장，야가통과제고농호수입、추동성진화화랍동농촌고정자산투자등간접방식촉진농촌경제증장；제삼，아국농촌취업결구교위단일，류통업잉시흡납농촌취업증장적주요도경，단류통업적발전병몰유촉진농촌기타산업적취업증장；제사，여성시류통업상비，농촌경제발전수평화류통업적락후시도치농촌류통업대농촌산업결구실거“선도성”화“관련성”공능적주요원인；최후，재불동도경상류통업대농촌경제적촉진작용시체기대치상동，류통업발전대농촌경제적종합영향대약재제사년최위현저。
This paper constructs a theoretical model about the pathways that the distribution industry influences the rural economy from the multiple dimensions of the gross output value of rural economy, the framers ~income, the industrial structure and urbanization and so on, which is then tested by the Canonical Relation Analysis and SVAR model. The result shows： Firstly, the distribution industry development is highly correlated with the rural economic growth. There exists the long-term equilibrium relationship and dynamic adjustment mechanism be- tween them. Secondly, the distribution industry can not only affect the rural economic growth directly by impro- ving the gross output value of rural economy and the rural employment, but increase the rural economic growth indirectly by improving the farmers~income, promoting the urbanization and stimulating the rural fixed assets in- vestment. Thirdly, China~ rural employment structure is relatively unitary. The distribution industry is still the main way to absorb the rural employment growth, but its development does not promote the employment growth in other rural industries. Fourthly, the backwardness of rural economic development level and distribution industry, compared with the urban distribution industry, is the main reason that the rural distribution industry loses its ＂pi- lot＂ and ＂relevance＂ on the rural industrial structure. Finally, the lag period in which the distribution industry promotes the rural economy is the same in the different pathways. The comprehensive impact of the distribution industry development on the rural economy is the most significant approximately in the fourth year.