科学决策
科學決策
과학결책
Scientific Decision-Making
2014年
3期
1~29
,共null页
樊艳华 袁建华 史正 杨蝶
樊豔華 袁建華 史正 楊蝶
번염화 원건화 사정 양접
人口预测 适度人口 人口红利 老年比 人口安全
人口預測 適度人口 人口紅利 老年比 人口安全
인구예측 괄도인구 인구홍리 노년비 인구안전
population prediction; optimum population; demographic dividend; proportion of aged; population security
本文对我国未来人口与可持续发展的预测研究表明:无论哪种假设方案,前50年人口总量都比较多,对资源环境的压力都要增加;后50年年龄结构进入"负利"阶段,人口抚养负担对经济社会发展将产生负面作用;中间40年老年人口数量巨大,老年人口问题最为突出。论文以静止人口模型指标值为标准,精确给出我国人口"红利"起止时间,未来人口"负利"发生时间,以及老年比偏低和偏高的时间,并对这些人口年龄结构特点进行了深入分析。研究指出,如果前50年维持中方案水平,后50年再将总和生育率逐渐升至更替水平,则劳动年龄人口数量减小幅度不大,总抚养比升高程度可以接受,老年比不至于过高,有利于形成12亿人左右的适度人口规模,因此是一个趋利避害的人口发展方向。未来人口发展存在许多安全隐患,如人口发展加重自然资源过度消耗、生态环境进一步恶化、生育水平长期超低、空巢老人规模过大、农村鳏夫大量增多、农民工过度流动等,都会导致群体安全问题。针对这些问题,论文建议要进一步加大保护资源环境的力度、大力建设节约型社会、高度重视人口安全问题,以及尽早研究制定新人口政策,以促进人口与经济、社会、资源、环境协调发展和可持续发展。
本文對我國未來人口與可持續髮展的預測研究錶明:無論哪種假設方案,前50年人口總量都比較多,對資源環境的壓力都要增加;後50年年齡結構進入"負利"階段,人口撫養負擔對經濟社會髮展將產生負麵作用;中間40年老年人口數量巨大,老年人口問題最為突齣。論文以靜止人口模型指標值為標準,精確給齣我國人口"紅利"起止時間,未來人口"負利"髮生時間,以及老年比偏低和偏高的時間,併對這些人口年齡結構特點進行瞭深入分析。研究指齣,如果前50年維持中方案水平,後50年再將總和生育率逐漸升至更替水平,則勞動年齡人口數量減小幅度不大,總撫養比升高程度可以接受,老年比不至于過高,有利于形成12億人左右的適度人口規模,因此是一箇趨利避害的人口髮展方嚮。未來人口髮展存在許多安全隱患,如人口髮展加重自然資源過度消耗、生態環境進一步噁化、生育水平長期超低、空巢老人規模過大、農村鰥伕大量增多、農民工過度流動等,都會導緻群體安全問題。針對這些問題,論文建議要進一步加大保護資源環境的力度、大力建設節約型社會、高度重視人口安全問題,以及儘早研究製定新人口政策,以促進人口與經濟、社會、資源、環境協調髮展和可持續髮展。
본문대아국미래인구여가지속발전적예측연구표명:무론나충가설방안,전50년인구총량도비교다,대자원배경적압력도요증가;후50년년령결구진입"부리"계단,인구무양부담대경제사회발전장산생부면작용;중간40년노년인구수량거대,노년인구문제최위돌출。논문이정지인구모형지표치위표준,정학급출아국인구"홍리"기지시간,미래인구"부리"발생시간,이급노년비편저화편고적시간,병대저사인구년령결구특점진행료심입분석。연구지출,여과전50년유지중방안수평,후50년재장총화생육솔축점승지경체수평,칙노동년령인구수량감소폭도불대,총무양비승고정도가이접수,노년비불지우과고,유리우형성12억인좌우적괄도인구규모,인차시일개추리피해적인구발전방향。미래인구발전존재허다안전은환,여인구발전가중자연자원과도소모、생태배경진일보악화、생육수평장기초저、공소노인규모과대、농촌환부대량증다、농민공과도류동등,도회도치군체안전문제。침대저사문제,논문건의요진일보가대보호자원배경적력도、대력건설절약형사회、고도중시인구안전문제,이급진조연구제정신인구정책,이촉진인구여경제、사회、자원、배경협조발전화가지속발전。
In this paper,predictive study on the population is made and the results show that under all scenarios,population in the first 50 years will maintain a high level,imposing an increasing pressure on resources and the environment. In the second half,the age mix will enter the phase of demographic blight,in other words,the dependency burden will have negative impact on social and economic development. In the middle 40 years,China will have a great number of the aged with largest problems related. The study,based on the values of statistical indicants of the stationary population model,provides the exact time when China will benefit from demographic dividend and suffer from demographic blight,and when the proportion of aged population will be high and low. In addition,characteristics of the age mix are analyzed in depth. The study also shows that keeping Middling Project in the first 50 years and raising the fertility rate to the replacing level step by step later is the best direction of population development. Only in this way,can the number of working-age population be kept and the proportion of the aged controlled appropriately in order to form a moderate population scale of 1. 2 billion,which could be benefit-tending and harm-avoiding. Future population will be subject to many potential risks,for example,rapid population growth will aggravate over-consumption of natural resources and deteriorate the environment,fertility will be at an extremely low level for a long period of time,size of the elderly living in"empty nests"will be big,widowers in rural areas will increase a lot,peasant-workers will overly migrate,etc. These phenomena will lead to serious population problems. In allusion to these issues,several proposals on the population and sustainable development are given as below: enhance the protection of resources and the environment,construct the intensive society industriously,pay high attention to the population safety issues and set new demographic policies as soon as possible to promote the harmonious and sustainable development of population together with that of the economy,society,resources and environment.