CAJ | 학술논문

历史排放责任是《联合国气候变化框架公约》中“共同但有区别的责任”原则的基石,也是气候谈判中南北双方争议的一个焦点.该文对历史排放责任的科学基础进行分析.首先从自然科学的角度证实发达国家的历史排放是导致当前气候变化和全球变暖的“人类排放活动”中的主要来源,探讨了两种不同的衡量历史排放责任的方法：气候模式方法和统计方法,并分析二者的优缺点及其不确定性;其次,在碳预算方法下对历史排放责任及其资金含义进行了分析,并探讨如何对历史排放的技术进步效应进行贴现;总结了对历史排放进行贴现的四点理由：物理科学基础、法律和伦理要求、技术进步的溢出效应以及现实政治谈判考虑.本文所取的物理、法律和技术三方面的年均贴现率值分别为0.7％、0.05％和0.75％,年均总贴现率取三者之和,为1.5％.然后分析这一贴现方法对各国尤其是发达国家减排责任和资金责任的影响.结果表明,贴现方法显著地减轻了发达国家的历史排放责任和资金责任：选取年均贴现率等于1.5％对历史实际排放进行贴现后,附件Ⅰ国家的历史排放责任是原来的62％,历史排放对应的资金责任仅是原来的19％;贴现后发达国家所需承担的资金责任2011-2050年平均每年为1 010亿美元,非常接近于《哥本哈根协议》要求的发达国家每年出资1000亿美元的水平.最后,本文分析了各种不同的统计口径对中国的影响,并建议在碳预算方案和公平获取可持续发展提案下利用技术贴现方法解决历史排放责任问题,以化被动为主动,获取更有利的谈判地位.
역사배방책임시《연합국기후변화광가공약》중“공동단유구별적책임”원칙적기석,야시기후담판중남북쌍방쟁의적일개초점.해문대역사배방책임적과학기출진행분석.수선종자연과학적각도증실발체국가적역사배방시도치당전기후변화화전구변난적“인류배방활동”중적주요래원,탐토료량충불동적형량역사배방책임적방법：기후모식방법화통계방법,병분석이자적우결점급기불학정성;기차,재탄예산방법하대역사배방책임급기자금함의진행료분석,병탐토여하대역사배방적기술진보효응진행첩현;총결료대역사배방진행첩현적사점이유：물이과학기출、법률화윤리요구、기술진보적일출효응이급현실정치담판고필.본문소취적물리、법률화기술삼방면적년균첩현솔치분별위0.7％、0.05％화0.75％,년균총첩현솔취삼자지화,위1.5％.연후분석저일첩현방법대각국우기시발체국가감배책임화자금책임적영향.결과표명,첩현방법현저지감경료발체국가적역사배방책임화자금책임：선취년균첩현솔등우1.5％대역사실제배방진행첩현후,부건Ⅰ국가적역사배방책임시원래적62％,역사배방대응적자금책임부시원래적19％;첩현후발체국가소수승담적자금책임2011-2050년평균매년위1 010억미원,비상접근우《가본합근협의》요구적발체국가매년출자1000억미원적수평.최후,본문분석료각충불동적통계구경대중국적영향,병건의재탄예산방안화공평획취가지속발전제안하이용기술첩현방법해결역사배방책임문제,이화피동위주동,획취경유리적담판지위.
The historical emission is the cornerstone of the principle of ＇ common but differentiated responsibilities＇ in the UNFCCC, and thus it is one of the focal point of the international climate negotiations. The purpose of this study is to analyse the scientific aspects of the historical emission. First, this paper studies the science basis of the historical emission and concludes that the Annex I countries＇ historical emission is the main source which causes the current global warming and climate change. Then, it compares different methods to measure each country＇s contributions of historical emission, i.e. the climate model method and statistical analysis method, and further analysis their uncertainties, advantages and weakness. Furthermore, it studies the Annex I countries＇ mitigation and financial responsibilities of the historical emission under the carbon budget proposal, more importantly, it analyses how to discount the historical emission to take account of the spillover effect of technology advance. There are four reasons for the discounting： the physical circulation of CO2, the inherent juridical and ethics need, the spillover effect of technology advance, and the pragmatic consideration for political climate negotiations. Thus this paper assigns discount rates 0.7% , 0.05% and 0.75% for the former three reasons respectively, and gets a total discount rate 1.5% per year. The results reveal that the discount method significantly reduces the burden of the mitigation and finance responsibilities for the Annex I countries. To be specific, after the discount, Annex I countries＇ historical emission responsibility is 62% compared to their original responsibility, while their financial responsibility is only 19% compared to their original responsibility, which means that the Annex I countries only need to pay US $ 101 billion per year during 2010 - 2050 to reimburse for their discounted historical responsibility, quite close to the financial responsibility target US $ 100 billion per year for the Annex I countries which set by the Copenhagen Accord. At last, it studies different statistic scope of GHGs and their impacts to China. It suggests that China could use this discount method under the framework of carbon budget proposal and topic of ＇equitable access to sustainable development＇ as a solution to historical emission responsibilities in the international arena of climate negotiations, in order to gain a more positive and advantageous position in the future international climate negotiations.