中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
4期
136~141
,共null页
人口老龄化 地区差异分解 泰尔指数 出生率 人均GDP FGLS
人口老齡化 地區差異分解 泰爾指數 齣生率 人均GDP FGLS
인구노령화 지구차이분해 태이지수 출생솔 인균GDP FGLS
population aging; regional difference decomposition; Theil Index; birth rate; per capita GDP
文章选取老龄化系数、老少比两个指标,首先运用泰尔指数分析法测算了1995-2011年中国人口老龄化地区差异,并按三区域进行结构分解;然后结合省际面板数据使用FGLS估计法实证检验了全国、东部、中部、西部各层面人口老龄化的影响因素.研究结论表明：中国人口老龄化具有非均衡空间分布特征,地区差异明显但短期变化趋势并不稳定,呈现反复波动态势;长期来看,老龄化地区差异呈逐渐扩大趋势;2004年以后,中、西部省际间老龄化差异呈扩大趋势,东部呈收敛趋势,东部省际间差异对老龄化总体差异影响最大;总体上看,区域内老龄化差异呈扩大趋势,区域间差异呈收敛趋势,区域内差异远大于区域间差异,这说明老龄化总体差异主要是由区域内差异引起的;人均GDP、出生率是影响我国人口老龄化的最重要两大因素;死亡率对全国层面老龄化反向影响效果显著,城市化率对中、西部层面老龄化正向影响较大,而文盲率对各层面老龄化未见反向影响效果.
文章選取老齡化繫數、老少比兩箇指標,首先運用泰爾指數分析法測算瞭1995-2011年中國人口老齡化地區差異,併按三區域進行結構分解;然後結閤省際麵闆數據使用FGLS估計法實證檢驗瞭全國、東部、中部、西部各層麵人口老齡化的影響因素.研究結論錶明：中國人口老齡化具有非均衡空間分佈特徵,地區差異明顯但短期變化趨勢併不穩定,呈現反複波動態勢;長期來看,老齡化地區差異呈逐漸擴大趨勢;2004年以後,中、西部省際間老齡化差異呈擴大趨勢,東部呈收斂趨勢,東部省際間差異對老齡化總體差異影響最大;總體上看,區域內老齡化差異呈擴大趨勢,區域間差異呈收斂趨勢,區域內差異遠大于區域間差異,這說明老齡化總體差異主要是由區域內差異引起的;人均GDP、齣生率是影響我國人口老齡化的最重要兩大因素;死亡率對全國層麵老齡化反嚮影響效果顯著,城市化率對中、西部層麵老齡化正嚮影響較大,而文盲率對各層麵老齡化未見反嚮影響效果.
문장선취노령화계수、노소비량개지표,수선운용태이지수분석법측산료1995-2011년중국인구노령화지구차이,병안삼구역진행결구분해;연후결합성제면판수거사용FGLS고계법실증검험료전국、동부、중부、서부각층면인구노령화적영향인소.연구결론표명：중국인구노령화구유비균형공간분포특정,지구차이명현단단기변화추세병불은정,정현반복파동태세;장기래간,노령화지구차이정축점확대추세;2004년이후,중、서부성제간노령화차이정확대추세,동부정수렴추세,동부성제간차이대노령화총체차이영향최대;총체상간,구역내노령화차이정확대추세,구역간차이정수렴추세,구역내차이원대우구역간차이,저설명노령화총체차이주요시유구역내차이인기적;인균GDP、출생솔시영향아국인구노령화적최중요량대인소;사망솔대전국층면노령화반향영향효과현저,성시화솔대중、서부층면노령화정향영향교대,이문맹솔대각층면노령화미견반향영향효과.
This article takes the aging coefficient and the ratio of the aged and the young as aging targets, calculates and decomposes the regional difference of Chinese aging from 1995 to 2011 using Theil index, examines the factors affecting population aging from the whole country, eastern, central, and western levels using FGLS estimation method and provincial panel data. The results show that： Chinese aging has unbalanced distribution characteristics, and regional differences are significant but not stable in the short term showing repeated fluctuations, but there is growing trend in the long term. After 2004, the provincial aging differences have expanded in the central and the western China, and narrowed in the eastern China, but aging differences among the eastern provinces play the most important role in the total differences. Aging differences within the region are increasing and the differences among regions are descending in the long term, and differences within the region are far bigger than differences among regions, so the total difference is mainly caused by the differences within the region. GDP per capita and birth rate are the most important factors affecting the population aging in China from all levels. Mortality has a negative effect on the aging from the national level, and the rate of city has positive influence in the central and the western China, but the illiteracy rate has no negative effect from all levels.
