CAJ | 학술논문

基于引力模型构建FTA贸易效应的事后评价方法，分析中国-东盟自贸区实施对我国农产品进口贸易的影响，定量分解贸易创造和贸易转移效应。研究表明：在传统引力模型中添加国家和年度双向固定效应．模型的有效性和经济学解释更趋合理。可以将这一模型推广应用于其他FTA的事后研究；从农产品总体来看，CAFTA对双边农产品贸易的推动作用明显，增长主要来自贸易创造．区域内贸易并没有以贸易转移为代价来实现增长；CAFTA主要体现为贸易创造意味着贸易开放的贸易获益明显．但限于产业调整的滞后会减弱贸易得益。
기우인력모형구건FTA무역효응적사후평개방법，분석중국-동맹자무구실시대아국농산품진구무역적영향，정량분해무역창조화무역전이효응。연구표명：재전통인력모형중첨가국가화년도쌍향고정효응．모형적유효성화경제학해석경추합리。가이장저일모형추엄응용우기타FTA적사후연구；종농산품총체래간，CAFTA대쌍변농산품무역적추동작용명현，증장주요래자무역창조．구역내무역병몰유이무역전이위대개래실현증장；CAFTA주요체현위무역창조의미착무역개방적무역획익명현．단한우산업조정적체후회감약무역득익。
The paper uses the method of ex-post evaluation constructed on the basis of gravity model to analyze the impact of CAFTA on China＇s agricultural product import, and quantitatively decomposes the effect of trade creation and trade diversion. The results show that when added with country and year fixed effects in the basic gravity model, the validity of the model and the explanation of economics tend to be more reasonable, which means that it could be applied to the ex-post study of other PTA; From the level of aggregated agricultural product, CAFTA boosts the agricultural trade between China and ASEAN, and the growth mainly comes from trade creation, but the growth of trade within the region is not realized at the expense of the trade division from nonmember countries; CAFFA is mainly embodied in trade creation, which means that open trade benefit is obvious, but the lag of industrial adjustment will weaken the trade benefit.