CAJ | 학술논문

利率是引导金融资源配置的信号，利率市场化改革必将对经济主体利益产生重要影响。本文在分析了经济主体在“存、贷利率管制”情形下福利状况后，基于我国制造业上市企业微观层面的大样本数据，对利率市场化的影响进行了经验分析。分析结果表明，在利率市场化后，企业能更好地平滑融资成本冲击，实现福利增进。基于动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE）的模拟结果也进一步证实，在利率市场化后，受益于居民消费的跨期平滑，中央银行可以通过调节真实利率进而有效地调控经济增长和物价水平；在居民、企业、中央银行三部门同时实现福利效用最大化的约束前提下，利率市场化能有效提高货币政策传导效率，消除中国经济发展中的价格之谜。
리솔시인도금융자원배치적신호，리솔시장화개혁필장대경제주체이익산생중요영향。본문재분석료경제주체재“존、대리솔관제”정형하복리상황후，기우아국제조업상시기업미관층면적대양본수거，대리솔시장화적영향진행료경험분석。분석결과표명，재리솔시장화후，기업능경호지평활융자성본충격，실현복리증진。기우동태수궤일반균형모형（DSGE）적모의결과야진일보증실，재리솔시장화후，수익우거민소비적과기평활，중앙은행가이통과조절진실리솔진이유효지조공경제증장화물개수평；재거민、기업、중앙은행삼부문동시실현복리효용최대화적약속전제하，리솔시장화능유효제고화폐정책전도효솔，소제중국경제발전중적개격지미。
Interest is a signal of the allocation of financial resources. Interest rate liberalization can benefit China significantly. By using dynamic panel data 2SLS estimations, this paper shows that interest rate liberalization could ease financial restraints, and improve the allocation efficiency of investment effectively. Through simulations in a DSGE model, we find that interest rate liberalization could improve the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, and enhance the financial access of underserved sectors. The conclusion is that we should promote the interest rate liberalization reform steadily, update traditional development concepts, increase capital efficiency and transfer to consumption based model of economic growth with interest rate liberalization reform, as well as maintain price-level stability through monetary policy, and achieve a sustainable healthy development of China＇ s economy.