经济理论与经济管理
經濟理論與經濟管理
경제이론여경제관리
Economic Theory and Business Management
2014年
4期
45~55
,共null页
LC-PIH模型 资产价格波动 消费传导 ARDL-UECM模型
LC-PIH模型 資產價格波動 消費傳導 ARDL-UECM模型
LC-PIH모형 자산개격파동 소비전도 ARDL-UECM모형
LC-PIH model; assets price volatility; consumption conduction; ARDL-UECM model
本文在生命周期一持久收入(LC-PIH)模型基础上分析了资产价格波动对居民消费及物价水平的影响,发现资产价格波动可以通过预算约束效应、实际收入效应、预期收入效应与替代效应四个渠道影响资产持有者的消费行为,进而影响物价水平。在此基础上,本文运用ARDL-UECM模型实证分析了资产价格对物价水平的影响,实证结果发现股票、房地产价格在长期内与物价存在相关关系,房地产价格是影响物价水平的重要因素,但股票价格对物价的影响不显著且不稳定。
本文在生命週期一持久收入(LC-PIH)模型基礎上分析瞭資產價格波動對居民消費及物價水平的影響,髮現資產價格波動可以通過預算約束效應、實際收入效應、預期收入效應與替代效應四箇渠道影響資產持有者的消費行為,進而影響物價水平。在此基礎上,本文運用ARDL-UECM模型實證分析瞭資產價格對物價水平的影響,實證結果髮現股票、房地產價格在長期內與物價存在相關關繫,房地產價格是影響物價水平的重要因素,但股票價格對物價的影響不顯著且不穩定。
본문재생명주기일지구수입(LC-PIH)모형기출상분석료자산개격파동대거민소비급물개수평적영향,발현자산개격파동가이통과예산약속효응、실제수입효응、예기수입효응여체대효응사개거도영향자산지유자적소비행위,진이영향물개수평。재차기출상,본문운용ARDL-UECM모형실증분석료자산개격대물개수평적영향,실증결과발현고표、방지산개격재장기내여물개존재상관관계,방지산개격시영향물개수평적중요인소,단고표개격대물개적영향불현저차불은정。
Based on the LC-PIH model, this paper analyzed the influence of asset price on household's consumption and CPI. It is found that asset price volatility could affect household's consumption behavior and the price level in four channels, which are budget constraint effect, actual income effect, expected income effect and substitution effect. On this basis, the paper applied ARDL-UECM model to analyze the impacts of asset prices on CPI. The empirical results showed that there was correlation between stock price, real estate price and CPI. The real estate price was an important factor in promoting the CPI, but the stock price has no significant and unstable effects on CPI.