生态经济
生態經濟
생태경제
Ecological Economy
2014年
5期
173~178
,共null页
傅崇辉 王文军 骆跃军 汤健
傅崇輝 王文軍 駱躍軍 湯健
부숭휘 왕문군 락약군 탕건
气候敏感指数 台风 属性层次模型 模糊综合灾度
氣候敏感指數 檯風 屬性層次模型 模糊綜閤災度
기후민감지수 태풍 속성층차모형 모호종합재도
climatic sensitivity indictor; typhoon; AHM; fuzzy mathematics
台风是我国沿海地区面临的主要气候风险之一,目前对气候风险的研究以灾害的自然属性为主,而非受灾地区的气候敏感性。沿海城市是财富和人口的高度聚集地,判断城市各部门对台风的敏感性有助于沿海城市的城市规划与产业布局。文章采用模糊灾度评价方法构建的气候敏感性指教,分析各指标对台风和风暴潮的敏感性响应灵敏程度,敏感指数越高的指标,赋予的权重越大。分析发现,在类似“黑格比”强度的台风侵袭下,殊海等四个沿海城市的气候脆弱性较大,各部门对台风和风暴潮气候风险的敏感性响应灵敏程度由高到低为:自然资源部门〉人口部门≥产业部门〉基础设施。建议将适应性研究纳入城市发展规划和地方政府应对气候变化工作的重点;协调好减缓和适应行动的关系;加强基础设施和城市生命线建设工作;加强人口管理工作,增强公众保险意识。
檯風是我國沿海地區麵臨的主要氣候風險之一,目前對氣候風險的研究以災害的自然屬性為主,而非受災地區的氣候敏感性。沿海城市是財富和人口的高度聚集地,判斷城市各部門對檯風的敏感性有助于沿海城市的城市規劃與產業佈跼。文章採用模糊災度評價方法構建的氣候敏感性指教,分析各指標對檯風和風暴潮的敏感性響應靈敏程度,敏感指數越高的指標,賦予的權重越大。分析髮現,在類似“黑格比”彊度的檯風侵襲下,殊海等四箇沿海城市的氣候脆弱性較大,各部門對檯風和風暴潮氣候風險的敏感性響應靈敏程度由高到低為:自然資源部門〉人口部門≥產業部門〉基礎設施。建議將適應性研究納入城市髮展規劃和地方政府應對氣候變化工作的重點;協調好減緩和適應行動的關繫;加彊基礎設施和城市生命線建設工作;加彊人口管理工作,增彊公衆保險意識。
태풍시아국연해지구면림적주요기후풍험지일,목전대기후풍험적연구이재해적자연속성위주,이비수재지구적기후민감성。연해성시시재부화인구적고도취집지,판단성시각부문대태풍적민감성유조우연해성시적성시규화여산업포국。문장채용모호재도평개방법구건적기후민감성지교,분석각지표대태풍화풍폭조적민감성향응령민정도,민감지수월고적지표,부여적권중월대。분석발현,재유사“흑격비”강도적태풍침습하,수해등사개연해성시적기후취약성교대,각부문대태풍화풍폭조기후풍험적민감성향응령민정도유고도저위:자연자원부문〉인구부문≥산업부문〉기출설시。건의장괄응성연구납입성시발전규화화지방정부응대기후변화공작적중점;협조호감완화괄응행동적관계;가강기출설시화성시생명선건설공작;가강인구관리공작,증강공음보험의식。
Typhoon is one of major climatic risks attack on the coastal area. The most relative researches focus on Typhoon's nature but not sensitivity of stricken city. The coastal cities are the aggregation of wealth and population.It will be helpful to judge the sensitivity of urban soci-economic system responding to climatic risks for urban planning. This article employs fuzzy mathematics to build the index of climatic risks sensitivity of four urban departments, and analyzes the level of sensitivity of each department responding to typhoon, for the indictors, the higher level of sensitivity, the heavier weight of indicator. The study shows that, there are four cities system will be fragile and vulnerable under the typhoon "Hagupit", the climatic sensitivity of departments are arranged in order of high to low, department of land and resources, population, industry, and infrastructure. It suggestes that taking the research work of adapting climate change to the urban planning and the activities of addressing climate change in local government level, strengthening the works of infrastructure and city's lifeline build, integrating the relationship between mitigation and adaptation; enhancing public awareness of insurance.