湖南财政经济学院学报
湖南財政經濟學院學報
호남재정경제학원학보
Journal of Hunan Finance and Economic University
2014年
2期
101~106
,共null页
房价波动 金融支持 VAR模型 脉冲响应 方差分解
房價波動 金融支持 VAR模型 脈遲響應 方差分解
방개파동 금융지지 VAR모형 맥충향응 방차분해
house price fluctuations; financial support; VAR model; impulse response; variance decomposition
利用两部门动态供求价格决定模型,分析房价与金融支持的相互作用机理,并选用1999年1季度至2013年2季度的数据,基于VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法进行实证研究后发现：房价波动与金融支持之间存在着协整关系,金融支持是房价波动的长期Granger原因;短期内,房价波动与金融支持存在相互的正向影响,金融支持对房价上涨具有明显的推力作用,房价上涨又能引起金融支持扩张;长期看,金融支持的扩张会导致房价持续性下跌.
利用兩部門動態供求價格決定模型,分析房價與金融支持的相互作用機理,併選用1999年1季度至2013年2季度的數據,基于VAR模型,利用脈遲響應函數和方差分解等方法進行實證研究後髮現：房價波動與金融支持之間存在著協整關繫,金融支持是房價波動的長期Granger原因;短期內,房價波動與金融支持存在相互的正嚮影響,金融支持對房價上漲具有明顯的推力作用,房價上漲又能引起金融支持擴張;長期看,金融支持的擴張會導緻房價持續性下跌.
이용량부문동태공구개격결정모형,분석방개여금융지지적상호작용궤리,병선용1999년1계도지2013년2계도적수거,기우VAR모형,이용맥충향응함수화방차분해등방법진행실증연구후발현：방개파동여금융지지지간존재착협정관계,금융지지시방개파동적장기Granger원인;단기내,방개파동여금융지지존재상호적정향영향,금융지지대방개상창구유명현적추력작용,방개상창우능인기금융지지확장;장기간,금융지지적확장회도치방개지속성하질.
Using a dynamic two sector supply and demand price decision model to analyze the interaction mechanism of housing and financial support, and selecting data from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2013, this paper uses impulse response and variance decomposition of VAR model to do an empirical analysis, and the resuhs show that there is a long - term stable equilibrium relationship between house prices and financial support, and financial support is price fluctua- tions＇ long - term Granger cause; in the short term, there are positive effects between price fluctuations and financial support, and financial support has a promoting effect on prices, and prices rising can also cause the expansion of finan- cial support; in the long term, financial support expansion will lead to house prices continued to fall, while the fluctua- tions of prices almost has no influence on the financial support.
