重庆理工大学学报：社会科学版
重慶理工大學學報：社會科學版
중경리공대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Chongqing Institute of Technology
2014年
3期
26~31
,共null页
贝叶斯确证理论 旧证据问题 反事实概率 先验概率
貝葉斯確證理論 舊證據問題 反事實概率 先驗概率
패협사학증이론 구증거문제 반사실개솔 선험개솔
Bayesian confirmation theory;the problem of old evidence;the counterfactual probability;the prior probability
介绍了学界关于旧证据问题进行争论的情况.主张在豪森的反事实策略的基础上区分理论解释性证据和理论预见性证据,以应对反事实概率的可测度性问题.反事实策略并不要求在指派反事实概率上遵循理性的标准,反事实概率实质上是一种先验概率,即无条件的主观置信度,主观贝叶斯主义并不承诺其指派合理性标准.反事实概率的可测度性并不能构成对反事实策略的挑战.
介紹瞭學界關于舊證據問題進行爭論的情況.主張在豪森的反事實策略的基礎上區分理論解釋性證據和理論預見性證據,以應對反事實概率的可測度性問題.反事實策略併不要求在指派反事實概率上遵循理性的標準,反事實概率實質上是一種先驗概率,即無條件的主觀置信度,主觀貝葉斯主義併不承諾其指派閤理性標準.反事實概率的可測度性併不能構成對反事實策略的挑戰.
개소료학계관우구증거문제진행쟁론적정황.주장재호삼적반사실책략적기출상구분이론해석성증거화이론예견성증거,이응대반사실개솔적가측도성문제.반사실책략병불요구재지파반사실개솔상준순이성적표준,반사실개솔실질상시일충선험개솔,즉무조건적주관치신도,주관패협사주의병불승낙기지파합이성표준.반사실개솔적가측도성병불능구성대반사실책략적도전.
The paper introduces the contemporary debates about the problem of old evidence among the academic circles, and further distinguishes the evidence of theory explanation and that of scientific prediction following Howson＇ s counterfactual strategy. It can make a response to the problem of meas- urability of the counterfactual probability. It holds that the counterfactual strategy doesn＇ t promise the rational criterion for the appointment of counterfactual probability. As a matter of fact, the counterfac-tual probability is a prior probability, in another word, it is credence without restriction. As a result, the Bayesian methodology has no need to promise the rational criterion, and surely the measurability of counterfactual probability will pose no challenge for the counteffactual approach.
