CAJ | 학술논문

社会稳定风险评估作为一项制度安排，成为提升决策过程科学化和民主化的依赖路径。与实践快速推进相比，学界的研究特别是对其理论基础研究严重不足。基于社会理论视野，在国家与社会、决策与评估、抗争与参与、战略与预见、风险与管理五个层次勾勒出知识图景。在国家与社会互动界面上来认识和理解社会稳定风险评估，把该项制度安排的生命力置身于民主政治和国家建设的双重维度交叉点上。社会稳定风险评估属于典型的决策预评估，但是在影响评估框架内还没有开发出评估工具和可能形成的风险概念。其要义是在评估的过程中推进公众参与，把群体抗争的负能量通过决策过程的变革转变为公众参与的正能量。评估的对象是带有复杂利益调节的公共决策，属于典型的战略性决策，而非机会决策。社会稳定风险评估大大拓展了社会影响评估的范畴，关注的是风险问题，纳入到风险评估与管理范畴，即社会风险的评估、预测与防范等。
사회은정풍험평고작위일항제도안배，성위제승결책과정과학화화민주화적의뢰로경。여실천쾌속추진상비，학계적연구특별시대기이론기출연구엄중불족。기우사회이론시야，재국가여사회、결책여평고、항쟁여삼여、전략여예견、풍험여관리오개층차구륵출지식도경。재국가여사회호동계면상래인식화리해사회은정풍험평고，파해항제도안배적생명력치신우민주정치화국가건설적쌍중유도교차점상。사회은정풍험평고속우전형적결책예평고，단시재영향평고광가내환몰유개발출평고공구화가능형성적풍험개념。기요의시재평고적과정중추진공음삼여，파군체항쟁적부능량통과결책과정적변혁전변위공음삼여적정능량。평고적대상시대유복잡이익조절적공공결책，속우전형적전략성결책，이비궤회결책。사회은정풍험평고대대탁전료사회영향평고적범주，관주적시풍험문제，납입도풍험평고여관리범주，즉사회풍험적평고、예측여방범등。
As a system arrangement, social stability risk assessment is becoming a depending route to upgrade the science and democracy of decision-making process, and the researches about it especially the theoretical base is seriously scarce in contrast with the fast push of practice. This paper is based on the theoretical views to draw the knowledgeable visions by 5 levels, which are country and society ; decision-making and assessment; fighting and participation; strategy and prediction ; risk and management. We should know and understand the social stability risk assessment on the interface of country and society interaction and put the system＇ s viability on the double dimensions＇ crossing point. The social stability risk assessment is belonged to the traditional pre-assessment, but the re- searches have＇ t developed the assessing implements and the possible formed risk concept in the in- fluencing assessing frame. The importance is to push the public participation in the progress of as- sessment and to transform the negative power of the fighting of public into the positive power concern- ing public participation, it is through the revolution of the process in decision-making. The object of assessment is public decision including the adjustment of complex interests, which is belonged to the typical strategy decision-making but not the opportunity decision-making. The social stability risk as- sessment expands the area of society influencing assessment hugely and focuses on the problem of risk, it is included into the area of risk assessment and management such as the assessment, predic- tion and prevention of social risk.