CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用蒙特卡洛方法随机模拟投资收益率,构建了企业年金替代率模型,并进一步对影响企业年金替代率的各个因素进行敏感性分析,探讨工资增长率和退休年龄变化对替代率的影响.本文量化分析了不同的资产配置策略和缴费率模式对替代率的影响,并引入Lifestyle型动态资产配置策略和动态缴费率模式,根据模型的分析结果,从延长退休年龄、控制工资增长率、放松对年金基金资产配置的强制规定和引入逐年递增的动态缴费率模式等方面对提高企业年金替代率提出了相应的政策建议.
본문이용몽특잡락방법수궤모의투자수익솔,구건료기업년금체대솔모형,병진일보대영향기업년금체대솔적각개인소진행민감성분석,탐토공자증장솔화퇴휴년령변화대체대솔적영향.본문양화분석료불동적자산배치책략화격비솔모식대체대솔적영향,병인입Lifestyle형동태자산배치책략화동태격비솔모식,근거모형적분석결과,종연장퇴휴년령、공제공자증장솔、방송대년금기금자산배치적강제규정화인입축년체증적동태격비솔모식등방면대제고기업년금체대솔제출료상응적정책건의.
This paper simulates asset returns with Monte Carlo method, calculates annuity rate with insurance industry mortality rate and historical yield curve. Based on these, the authors build DC pension replacement ratio model, then carry on the sensitivity analysis of the elements influencing lhe replacement ratio and discuss the influence of wage growth rate and retirement age on the replacement ratio. This paper analyzes how the different asset allocation strategy and contribution rate affect the replacement ratio, then introduces the dynamic lifestyle model and dynamic contribution rate model. According to the result, the authors suggest some approaches to improve the performance of DC pension, in terms of retirement defer, wage growth rate control, the regulation of pension asset allocation strategy and dynamic contribution rate.