CAJ | 학술논문

使用时变参数模型分析政府支出对居民消费的动态影响.实证结果表明：从总量上看,政府支出对居民消费有促进作用,但力度有减弱趋势,整体趋势呈现“倒L型”;从结构上看,经济建设支出始终抑制居民消费,社会文教支出对居民消费的作用由弱变强,并逐步变为主要推动作用,行政管理支出对居民消费从促进作用变为抑制作用.不同时间阶段这三类政府支出对全体居民及城镇居民和农村居民消费的动态影响有一定程度的差异.
사용시변삼수모형분석정부지출대거민소비적동태영향.실증결과표명：종총량상간,정부지출대거민소비유촉진작용,단력도유감약추세,정체추세정현“도L형”;종결구상간,경제건설지출시종억제거민소비,사회문교지출대거민소비적작용유약변강,병축보변위주요추동작용,행정관리지출대거민소비종촉진작용변위억제작용.불동시간계단저삼류정부지출대전체거민급성진거민화농촌거민소비적동태영향유일정정도적차이.
Using the time-varying parameter model to analyze the impact of government expenditure on private consumption. From the total perspective, the government expenditure has the positive effect on consumer spending, but the effect become weaker than before, and the overall trend appears the inverted L shape. From a structural perspective, economic construction expenditure has always suppressed private consumption, the role of social expenditure on consumption becomes strong, and the role of administrative management expenditure on consumption becomes negative. There are some different effects of these three types government expenditure on all residents, urban residents and rural residents＇ consumption in different stages.