地域研究与开发
地域研究與開髮
지역연구여개발
Areal Research and Development
2014年
2期
99~105
,共null页
国内旅游客流 入境旅游客流 齐夫定律 江苏省
國內旅遊客流 入境旅遊客流 齊伕定律 江囌省
국내여유객류 입경여유객류 제부정률 강소성
domestic tourist flow;inbound tourist flow;Zipf rule;Jiangsu Province
运用首位度、位次变化、齐夫定律、差异度，比较分析了江苏省2009-2012年国内及入境旅游客流规模分布的变化特征。国内旅游客流和入境旅游客流二者首位分布均不明显，但后者大于前者，且前者向扩散方向演变，后者向集中方向演变；二者均遵循齐夫定律，但前者为单分形，后者前6年为单分形，后8年则为双分形；前者先呈对数正态分布模式后呈帕雷托模式，后者前6年呈不规则帕雷托模式，后8年标度区一先呈不规则帕雷托模式后呈帕雷托模式，标度区二呈不规则帕雷托模式；前者规模变差呈现波动扩大态势，后者则呈波动缩小趋势；二者的差异度都不大，但后者大于前者，且差异度变化与各自Zipf参数变化趋势基本一致；区域经济发展、旅游资源、可进入性、服务设施、重大事件、客源地居民收入、旅游偏好等多种因素综合影响着江苏旅游客流规模分布的变化。
運用首位度、位次變化、齊伕定律、差異度，比較分析瞭江囌省2009-2012年國內及入境旅遊客流規模分佈的變化特徵。國內旅遊客流和入境旅遊客流二者首位分佈均不明顯，但後者大于前者，且前者嚮擴散方嚮縯變，後者嚮集中方嚮縯變；二者均遵循齊伕定律，但前者為單分形，後者前6年為單分形，後8年則為雙分形；前者先呈對數正態分佈模式後呈帕雷託模式，後者前6年呈不規則帕雷託模式，後8年標度區一先呈不規則帕雷託模式後呈帕雷託模式，標度區二呈不規則帕雷託模式；前者規模變差呈現波動擴大態勢，後者則呈波動縮小趨勢；二者的差異度都不大，但後者大于前者，且差異度變化與各自Zipf參數變化趨勢基本一緻；區域經濟髮展、旅遊資源、可進入性、服務設施、重大事件、客源地居民收入、旅遊偏好等多種因素綜閤影響著江囌旅遊客流規模分佈的變化。
운용수위도、위차변화、제부정률、차이도，비교분석료강소성2009-2012년국내급입경여유객류규모분포적변화특정。국내여유객류화입경여유객류이자수위분포균불명현，단후자대우전자，차전자향확산방향연변，후자향집중방향연변；이자균준순제부정률，단전자위단분형，후자전6년위단분형，후8년칙위쌍분형；전자선정대수정태분포모식후정파뢰탁모식，후자전6년정불규칙파뢰탁모식，후8년표도구일선정불규칙파뢰탁모식후정파뢰탁모식，표도구이정불규칙파뢰탁모식；전자규모변차정현파동확대태세，후자칙정파동축소추세；이자적차이도도불대，단후자대우전자，차차이도변화여각자Zipf삼수변화추세기본일치；구역경제발전、여유자원、가진입성、복무설시、중대사건、객원지거민수입、여유편호등다충인소종합영향착강소여유객류규모분포적변화。
By applying primacy index ,rank change ,Zipf rule and difference degree ,the characteristics of vari-ation of domestic and inbound tourist flow-size distribution in Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2012 are comparatively studied in this paper .Both of their primacy distribution are not obvious ,but the latter is higher than the former ,and the former varies towards the direction of diffusion and the latter towards the direction of centralization;They both follow Zipf rule in each year ,and the former is a single fractal ,while the latter is a single fractal in the first 6 years and a double fractal in the late 8 years;The distribution pattern of the former changes from lognormal distribution model to Pareto model,while the latter is in irregular Pareto model in the first 6 years,and in the late 8 years non-scaling rangeⅠchanges from irregular Pareto model to Pareto model and non-scaling range Ⅱis in irregular Pareto model;The size gap of the former shows a fluctuation widening tendency , whereas the latter presents a fluctuation narrowing trend;Both of their difference degree are not big ,but the latter is higher than the former ,and variations of difference degree of the two have the similar tendency to their Zipf parameter;The variation of size distribution is a result of comprehensive influence of many factors such as regional economic development ,tourism resources ,the ac-cessibility,service facilities,mega-event,income of resident in tourist source ,traveling preference,and so on.
