CAJ | 학술논문

榆林市地处我国北方农牧交错区，是国家能源重化工基地和能源战略西移的核心区。近年来，受全球气候变化、人类扰动等的强烈影响，榆林市气候变化中增温少雨现象较明显，加剧了区域水资源瓶颈的制约和脆弱生态环境保护的压力，增加了区域生态-经济-社会系统的非稳性和敏感性，进而危及到区域能源可持续开发利用和经济社会可持续发展。采用数理统计、对比分析等方法，利用区域气象资料、能源开发系列数据，深入分析了1986年前后榆林市气候变化的人文驱动力因素及其作用机制，并基于研究结果和地方实际，提出了适应和减缓气候暖干化的产业结构优化调整、水资源优化配置等应对策略。研究结果可为榆林市及同类地区的优化发展提供参考。
유림시지처아국북방농목교착구，시국가능원중화공기지화능원전략서이적핵심구。근년래，수전구기후변화、인류우동등적강렬영향，유림시기후변화중증온소우현상교명현，가극료구역수자원병경적제약화취약생태배경보호적압력，증가료구역생태-경제-사회계통적비은성화민감성，진이위급도구역능원가지속개발이용화경제사회가지속발전。채용수리통계、대비분석등방법，이용구역기상자료、능원개발계렬수거，심입분석료1986년전후유림시기후변화적인문구동력인소급기작용궤제，병기우연구결과화지방실제，제출료괄응화감완기후난간화적산업결구우화조정、수자원우화배치등응대책략。연구결과가위유림시급동류지구적우화발전제공삼고。
Yulin City is situated on farming-pastoral zone in north China , though there are rich energy re-sources, its ecological environment is very fragile , meanwhile it is energy chemical industry base of China and the core area in which moving west stress of our country ’ s energy strategies .In recent years , being influenced by glob-al warming , extensive energy exploration as well as extensive land utilization , the phenomenon of climatic warming is extremely obvious in Yulin City .The climatic warming can intensify inevitably the regional water resources short-age, the instability and sensibility of this region will increase , and then it will endanger energy exploration and the sustainable development of Yulin City .In order to analyze the human driving forces of climate change and its mech-anism , the methods of mathematical statistics and comparison analysis were used to comparatively study the driving forces and mechanism of the climate change around 1986 in this area , and put forward the following strategies ac-cording to the research results and local conditions , these include adjusting the regional industrial structure , optimi-zing the distribution of water resources , realizing the integration of urban and rural development etc .The research results could provide reference for the optimized development of Yulin City and similar area .